DFB-Pokal | Second Round

Oct 19, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

WWK Arena

Augsburg
2 - 5
Bayern

Pedersen (9'), Upamecano (65' og.)
Pedersen (78'), Gouweleeuw (79')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Maxim Choupo-Moting (27', 59'), Kimmich (53'), Musiala (74'), Davies (90+1')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Augsburg and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Augsburg

All competitions

DFB-Pokal

Last Game: FC Koln 3-2 Augsburg
Sunday, October 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bayern Munich

All competitions

DFB-Pokal

Last Game: Bayern 5-0 Freiburg
Sunday, October 16 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Augsburg 1-3 Bayern Munich

Given Augsburg's amount of expected absences through injury, only significant rotation from the visitors may spare them a drubbing. Bayern's squad depth may not compare to some of Europe's elite teams but it is still enviable to pretty much any team in Germany, and they should have more than enough to advance to the third round regardless of how many changes Nagelsmann makes to his starting XI. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 78.53%. A draw had a probability of 13.1% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 8.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.34%) and 1-2 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.85%), while for an Augsburg win it was 2-1 (2.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Augsburg	Draw	Bayern Munich
8.39% ( -0.06)	13.08% ( 0)	78.53% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 55% (

-0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

72.53% (

-0.25)

27.47% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

51.92% (

-0.32)

48.08% (

0.32)

Augsburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.23% (

-0.33)

41.77% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.77% (

-0.29)

78.23% (

0.29)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.45% (

-0.04)

5.55% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

78.4% (

-0.12)

21.6% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Augsburg 8.39%

Bayern Munich 78.53%

Draw 13.08%

Augsburg	Draw	Bayern Munich
2-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.74% Total : 8.39%	1-1 @ 5.85% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 2.32% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.18% Total : 13.08%	0-2 @ 9.69% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 9.34% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.46% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 8.15% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 6.75% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.09) 1-4 @ 5.89% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 3.9% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.04) 1-5 @ 3.41% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 2.57% ( -0.03) 0-6 @ 1.88% ( -0) 1-6 @ 1.64% ( -0.02) 2-5 @ 1.49% ( -0.02) Other @ 5.09% Total : 78.53%