Bundesliga | Gameweek 11
Nov 12, 2023 at 6.30pm UK
Red Bull Arena
RB Leipzig3 - 1Freiburg
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Red Star 1-2 RB Leipzig
Tuesday, November 7 at 8pm in Champions League
Tuesday, November 7 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Freiburg 5-0 Backa Topola
Thursday, November 9 at 8pm in Europa League
Thursday, November 9 at 8pm in Europa League
We said: RB Leipzig 2-0 Freiburg
After suffering two disappointing defeats on the road, Leipzig will have taken plenty of confidence from their hard-earned victory away from home in the Champions League in midweek, and they will be pleased to be back at the Red Bull Arena on Sunday. Freiburg have had two fewer days' rest than their forthcoming opponents after winning in the Europa League on Thursday, and although we expect them to remain competitive as is usually the case, we can envisage Leipzig securing a relatively routine win. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 60.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 19.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.72%) and 1-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.3%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Freiburg |
60.01% ( 0.2) | 20.47% ( 0.02) | 19.52% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 59.53% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
