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Europa League
Freiburg logo
Europa League | Group Stage
Nov 9, 2023 at 8pm UK
Schwarzwald-Stadion

Freiburg
5 - 0
Backa Topola

Rohl (24'), Eggestein (56'), Weisshaupt (69'), Adamu (80'), Doan (90+2')
Lienhart (39')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Vlalukin (29')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Freiburg and Backa Topola, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Freiburg 3-3 Borussia M'bach
Saturday, November 4 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Backa Topola

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Backa Topola 1-3 Freiburg
Thursday, October 26 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Freiburg 3-0 Backa Topola

 Streich should not need to go with a full-strength side to pick up three points here, but if matchday three's hat-trick hero Grifo starts, then another healthy scoreline could be in the offing. TSC may need a win to keep any realistic hope of progression alive, even as a third-place Europa Conference League entrant, but this task looks insurmountable for the Serbian runners-up. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 54.94%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 22.72% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 1-2 (5.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.

Result
FreiburgDrawBacka Topola
54.94% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01) 22.34% (0.0020000000000024 0) 22.72% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Both teams to score 57.89% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.56% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)41.44% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.16% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)63.84% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.99% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)15.01% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.52% (-0.011999999999993 -0.01)43.48% (0.012 0.01)
Backa Topola Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.12% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)31.88% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.68% (0.0010000000000012 0)68.32% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 54.94%
    Backa Topola 22.72%
    Draw 22.33%
FreiburgDrawBacka Topola
2-1 @ 9.84%
1-0 @ 9.08% (0.0019999999999989 0)
2-0 @ 8.61%
3-1 @ 6.22% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 5.44% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.55% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 2.95% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 2.58% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.69% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.12% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 0.98% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 54.94%
1-1 @ 10.37%
2-2 @ 5.62%
0-0 @ 4.79% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.35% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 22.33%
1-2 @ 5.93% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-1 @ 5.47% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 3.13% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-3 @ 2.26% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.14%
0-3 @ 1.19% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 22.72%

How you voted: Freiburg vs Backa Topola

Freiburg
89.1%
Draw
9.1%
Backa Topola
1.8%
55
Head to Head
Oct 26, 2023 5.45pm
Group Stage
Backa Topola
1-3
Freiburg
Petrovic (13')
Cvetkovic (60'), Vlalukin (88'), Calusic (90+2')
Grifo (49' pen., 59', 73')
Lienhart (88')
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