Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Aug 8, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Braga
Braga3 - 0Backa Topola
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Roma 1-1 Braga
Wednesday, July 26 at 8pm in Club Friendlies 1
Wednesday, July 26 at 8pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Backa Topola 6-6 FCSB (4-5 pen.)
Thursday, September 17 at 8pm in Europa League
Thursday, September 17 at 8pm in Europa League
We said: Braga 3-1 Backa Topola
The hosts come into the match as huge favourites and have arguably got the best draw of the round against the tournament debutants. We fancy Braga to secure a commanding lead in this first-leg encounter, though we also expect the visitors to get on the scoresheet. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 70.17%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Backa Topola had a probability of 11.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.55%), while for a Backa Topola win it was 0-1 (3.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Backa Topola |
70.17% ( 0.01) | 18.01% | 11.81% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 49.1% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.56% ( -0.01) | 41.43% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.17% ( -0.01) | 63.83% ( 0.01) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.38% ( 0) | 10.62% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 65.57% | 34.43% ( 0) |
| Backa Topola Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.94% ( -0.02) | 45.06% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 19.02% ( -0.01) | 80.98% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
Braga 70.17%
Backa Topola 11.81%
Draw 18.01%
| Braga | Draw | Backa Topola |
| 2-0 @ 12.03% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 10.73% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0)3-0 @ 8.99% ( 0)3-1 @ 7.17% ( -0)4-0 @ 5.04% ( 0)4-1 @ 4.02% 3-2 @ 2.86% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.26% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.8% 4-2 @ 1.6% ( -0)Other @ 4.07% Total : 70.17% | 1-1 @ 8.55% 0-0 @ 4.79% ( 0)2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0)Other @ 0.85% Total : 18.01% | 0-1 @ 3.81% 1-2 @ 3.41% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.52% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.02% ( -0)1-3 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 1.15% Total : 11.81% |
How you voted: Braga vs Backa Topola
Braga
90.0%Draw
7.5%Backa Topola
2.5%40
