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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 46.54%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 30.37% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.41%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (7.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
Result | ||
Mainz 05 | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
30.37% ( 0.01) | 23.08% ( -0.01) | 46.54% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 62.6% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.54% ( 0.04) | 38.45% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.25% ( 0.04) | 60.74% ( -0.04) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.32% ( 0.03) | 24.67% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.79% ( 0.04) | 59.21% ( -0.04) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.11% ( 0.01) | 16.89% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.08% ( 0.03) | 46.92% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Mainz 05 | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
2-1 @ 7.26% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.83% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 4.08% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.39% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.9% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 2.67% Total : 30.37% | 1-1 @ 10.37% 2-2 @ 6.45% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.79% ( 0) Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.08% | 1-2 @ 9.22% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.47% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.91% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.83% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.43% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.74% 2-4 @ 1.7% ( 0) Other @ 4.24% Total : 46.54% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 7 | 26 | 26 |
2 | RB Leipzig | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 20 |
4 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 17 |
5 | Freiburg | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 17 |
6 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 16 |
7 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 16 |
8 | Werder Bremen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 15 |
9 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 14 |
10 | Mainz 05Mainz | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
11 | Stuttgart | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 13 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 12 |
13 | Augsburg | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 12 |
14 | Heidenheim | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 9 |
16 | St Pauli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 2 |
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