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Bundesliga | Gameweek 9
Nov 2, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Leipzig logo

Dortmund
2 - 1
RB Leipzig

Beier (30'), Guirassy (65')
Beier (21'), Bensebaini (34'), Azhil (90+7')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Sesko (27')
Baumgartner (8'), Henrichs (35'), Geertruida (40'), Kampl (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wolfsburg 1-0 Dortmund
Tuesday, October 29 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: RB Leipzig 4-2 St Pauli
Tuesday, October 29 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Borussia Dortmund 1-3 RB Leipzig

It is difficult to see how Dortmund can avoid defeat given their sheer number of injury absentees, as well as their poor form. Additionally, despite their continental struggles this term, RB Leipzig have been exceptional in the Bundesliga, and it would not be surprising if they inflicted more misery upon Dortmund on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 53.44%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 25.4% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.78%) and 1-0 (6.54%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawRB Leipzig
53.44% (-1.695 -1.7) 21.16% (0.415 0.41) 25.4% (1.289 1.29)
Both teams to score 65.51% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.13% (-0.68899999999999 -0.69)32.87% (0.697 0.7)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.42% (-0.799 -0.8)54.58% (0.808 0.81)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.44% (-0.709 -0.71)12.56% (0.717 0.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.38% (-1.502 -1.5)38.62% (1.51 1.51)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.92% (0.55199999999999 0.55)25.08% (-0.544 -0.54)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.24% (0.756 0.76)59.77% (-0.748 -0.75)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 53.44%
    RB Leipzig 25.4%
    Draw 21.16%
Borussia DortmundDrawRB Leipzig
2-1 @ 9.38% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-0 @ 6.78% (-0.127 -0.13)
1-0 @ 6.54% (0.061 0.06)
3-1 @ 6.48% (-0.203 -0.2)
3-0 @ 4.69% (-0.223 -0.22)
3-2 @ 4.48% (-0.069 -0.07)
4-1 @ 3.36% (-0.204 -0.2)
4-0 @ 2.43% (-0.188 -0.19)
4-2 @ 2.33% (-0.102 -0.1)
5-1 @ 1.4% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-3 @ 1.07% (-0.03 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.01% (-0.109 -0.11)
5-2 @ 0.97% (-0.071 -0.07)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 53.44%
1-1 @ 9.04% (0.223 0.22)
2-2 @ 6.48% (0.082 0.08)
0-0 @ 3.15% (0.115 0.12)
3-3 @ 2.07% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 21.16%
1-2 @ 6.25% (0.249 0.25)
0-1 @ 4.36% (0.225 0.23)
0-2 @ 3.01% (0.2 0.2)
2-3 @ 2.99% (0.084 0.08)
1-3 @ 2.88% (0.158 0.16)
0-3 @ 1.39% (0.112 0.11)
2-4 @ 1.03% (0.045 0.05)
1-4 @ 1% (0.07 0.07)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 25.4%

How you voted: Dortmund vs RB Leipzig

Borussia Dortmund
21.2%
Draw
19.6%
RB Leipzig
59.2%
179
Head to Head
Apr 27, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 31
RB Leipzig
4-1
Dortmund
Openda (23'), Sesko (45+2'), Simakan (46'), Baumgartner (80')
Simakan (37')
Sancho (20')
Sancho (37'), Schlotterbeck (76')
Dec 9, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 14
Dortmund
2-3
RB Leipzig
Sule (45+6'), Fullkrug (90+3')
Ozcan (60')
Hummels (15')
Bensebaini (32' og.), Baumgartner (54'), Poulsen (90+1')
Simakan (35'), Simons (61'), Openda (66')
Apr 5, 2023 7.45pm
Quarter-Finals
RB Leipzig
2-0
Dortmund
Werner (22'), Orban (90+8')
Mar 3, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Dortmund
2-1
RB Leipzig
Reus (21' pen.), Can (39')
Forsberg (74')
Sep 10, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
RB Leipzig
3-0
Dortmund
Orban (6'), Szoboszlai (45'), Haidara (84')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243


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