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Bundesliga | Gameweek 7
Oct 18, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
2 - 1
St Pauli

Bensebaini (43'), Guirassy (83')
Bynoe-Gittens (75'), Brandt (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Smith (78')
Smith (40')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and St Pauli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 2-1 Dortmund
Saturday, October 5 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

St Pauli

All competitions
Last Game: St Pauli 0-3 Mainz
Saturday, October 5 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 St Pauli

 Although Borussia Dortmund have struggled for consistency in recent weeks, it is difficult to see them losing given the poor offensive record of the visitors. It would also be surprising if St Pauli managed to avoid defeat considering the strong home form of their hosts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 57.17%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 22.49% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.22%) and 3-1 (6.9%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (5.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Borussia Dortmund.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawSt Pauli
57.17% (-1.334 -1.33) 20.35% (0.073 0.07) 22.49% (1.262 1.26)
Both teams to score 64.85% (1.654 1.65)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.81% (1.332 1.33)32.18% (-1.332 -1.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.22% (1.537 1.54)53.78% (-1.538 -1.54)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.71% (0.058999999999997 0.06)11.29% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.08% (0.132 0.13)35.92% (-0.132 -0.13)
St Pauli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.11% (1.818 1.82)26.89% (-1.817 -1.82)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.8% (2.329 2.33)62.2% (-2.328 -2.33)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 57.17%
    St Pauli 22.49%
    Draw 20.35%
Borussia DortmundDrawSt Pauli
2-1 @ 9.49% (-0.142 -0.14)
2-0 @ 7.22% (-0.492 -0.49)
3-1 @ 6.9% (-0.086 -0.09)
1-0 @ 6.62% (-0.468 -0.47)
3-0 @ 5.25% (-0.344 -0.34)
3-2 @ 4.53% (0.172 0.17)
4-1 @ 3.76% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2.86% (-0.179 -0.18)
4-2 @ 2.47% (0.1 0.1)
5-1 @ 1.64% (-0.012 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.25% (-0.075 -0.08)
4-3 @ 1.08% (0.095 0.1)
5-2 @ 1.08% (0.046 0.05)
Other @ 3.02%
Total : 57.17%
1-1 @ 8.7% (-0.151 -0.15)
2-2 @ 6.23% (0.222 0.22)
0-0 @ 3.04% (-0.223 -0.22)
3-3 @ 1.98% (0.17 0.17)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 20.35%
1-2 @ 5.71% (0.19 0.19)
0-1 @ 3.99% (-0.079 -0.08)
2-3 @ 2.73% (0.229 0.23)
0-2 @ 2.62% (0.081 0.08)
1-3 @ 2.5% (0.203 0.2)
0-3 @ 1.15% (0.091 0.09)
Other @ 3.79%
Total : 22.49%

How you voted: Dortmund vs St Pauli

Borussia Dortmund
87.9%
Draw
9.7%
St Pauli
2.4%
207
Head to Head
Jan 18, 2022 7.45pm
Last 16
St Pauli
2-1
Dortmund
Amenyido (4'), Witsel (40' og.)
Braut Haaland (58' pen.)
> Preview
Oct 28, 2014 7.30pm
Second Round
St Pauli
0-3
Dortmund

Gonther (84'), Maier (85')
Immobile (33'), Reus (44'), Kagawa (86')
Kehl (84')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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