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Mainz logo
DFB-Pokal | Second Round
Oct 30, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Mewa Arena
Bayern logo

Mainz
0 - 4
Bayern


Kohr (20'), Nebel (45+3'), Jenz (45+3'), Nebel (64')
FT(HT: 0-4)
Musiala (2', 37', 45+4'), Sane (45+1')
Laimer (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Borussia M'bach
Friday, October 25 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Bayern Munich

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: VfL Bochum 0-5 Bayern
Sunday, October 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-3 Bayern Munich

 Bayern are in mixed form of late and it would not be surprising if they were to concede first on Wednesday. However, given the sheer depth of the Bavarians' forward line, it is difficult to see how Mainz would be able to hold onto a lead. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 53.36%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 25.71% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.52%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
25.71% (-1.813 -1.81) 20.93% (-0.142 -0.14) 53.36% (1.954 1.95)
Both teams to score 66.73% (-1.283 -1.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
68.57% (-0.938 -0.94)31.43% (0.936 0.94)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
47.11% (-1.113 -1.11)52.89% (1.111 1.11)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.91% (-1.679 -1.68)24.09% (1.677 1.68)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.63% (-2.448 -2.45)58.37% (2.446 2.45)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.9% (0.246 0.25)12.1% (-0.248 -0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.35% (0.518 0.52)37.65% (-0.519 -0.52)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 25.71%
    Bayern Munich 53.36%
    Draw 20.93%
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 6.24% (-0.237 -0.24)
1-0 @ 4.15% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.13% (-0.251 -0.25)
3-1 @ 2.96% (-0.268 -0.27)
2-0 @ 2.95% (-0.142 -0.14)
3-0 @ 1.4% (-0.142 -0.14)
4-2 @ 1.11% (-0.15 -0.15)
4-1 @ 1.05% (-0.154 -0.15)
Other @ 2.72%
Total : 25.71%
1-1 @ 8.76% (0.106 0.11)
2-2 @ 6.59% (-0.185 -0.19)
0-0 @ 2.91% (0.147 0.15)
3-3 @ 2.2% (-0.154 -0.15)
Other @ 0.47%
Total : 20.93%
1-2 @ 9.25% (0.199 0.2)
1-3 @ 6.52% (0.201 0.2)
0-2 @ 6.5% (0.447 0.45)
0-1 @ 6.15% (0.368 0.37)
2-3 @ 4.64% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
0-3 @ 4.58% (0.355 0.36)
1-4 @ 3.44% (0.138 0.14)
2-4 @ 2.45% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-4 @ 2.42% (0.209 0.21)
1-5 @ 1.45% (0.071 0.07)
3-4 @ 1.16% (-0.069 -0.07)
2-5 @ 1.03% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-5 @ 1.02% (0.097 0.1)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 53.36%

How you voted: Mainz vs Bayern

Mainz 05
7.8%
Draw
7.8%
Bayern Munich
84.3%
102
Head to Head
Mar 9, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 25
Bayern
8-1
Mainz
Kane (13', 45+7', 70'), Goretzka (19', 90+2'), Muller (47'), Musiala (61'), Gnabry (66')
Laimer (5')
Amiri (31')
Widmer (84')
> Preview
Oct 21, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 8
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1-3
Bayern
Caci (43')
Ajorque (45+2'), Kohr (49'), Bell (65')
Coman (11'), Kane (16'), Goretzka (59')
de Ligt (27'), Laimer (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 22, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 29
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Ajorque (65'), Barreiro (73'), Caricol (79')
Mane (29')
> Preview
Feb 1, 2023 7.45pm
Round of 16
Mainz
0-4
Bayern
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
> Preview
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Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
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> Preview
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