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Bundesliga | Gameweek 25
Mar 9, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
Mainz logo

Bayern
8 - 1
Mainz

Kane (13', 45+7', 70'), Goretzka (19', 90+2'), Muller (47'), Musiala (61'), Gnabry (66')
Laimer (5')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Amiri (31')
Widmer (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Lazio
Tuesday, March 5 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Borussia M'bach
Saturday, March 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayern Munich 4-1 Mainz 05

Bayern will enter Saturday's contest as firm favourites, but they are aware that there is no room for error from now until the end of the season if they are to keep their slim hopes of retaining the Bundesliga title alive. Mainz cannot be written off entirely as they are fighting for their lives at the wrong end of the table and have marginally improved under Henriksen, but Bayern should ultimately have the firepower to outscore their opponents en route to a comfortable victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 82.44%. A draw had a probability of 11.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.07%) and 4-0 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (1.9%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
82.44% (0.070999999999998 0.07) 11.53% (-0.044 -0.04) 6.03% (-0.0271 -0.03)
Both teams to score 47.9% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
70.6% (0.108 0.11)29.4% (-0.106 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
49.53% (0.13 0.13)50.47% (-0.13 -0.13)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.74% (0.034000000000006 0.03)5.26% (-0.032 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
79.25% (0.096000000000004 0.1)20.75% (-0.094999999999999 -0.09)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)49.44%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.74% (0.0040000000000013 0)84.26% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 82.43%
    Mainz 05 6.03%
    Draw 11.53%
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 11.27% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-0 @ 11.07% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-0 @ 8.15% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 7.94% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 7.8% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-0 @ 7.66% (-0.031 -0.03)
4-1 @ 5.74% (0.012 0.01)
5-0 @ 4.8% (0.02 0.02)
5-1 @ 3.38% (0.015 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.75%
6-0 @ 2.36% (0.015 0.02)
4-2 @ 2.02% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
6-1 @ 1.66% (0.01 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.19% (0.006 0.01)
7-0 @ 0.99% (0.009 0.01)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 82.43%
1-1 @ 5.39% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-2 @ 2.8% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 2.6% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 11.53%
1-2 @ 1.9% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-1 @ 1.83% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 6.03%

How you voted: Bayern vs Mainz

Bayern Munich
88.1%
Draw
10.7%
Mainz 05
1.2%
84
Head to Head
Oct 21, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 8
Mainz
1-3
Bayern
Caci (43')
Ajorque (45+2'), Kohr (49'), Bell (65')
Coman (11'), Kane (16'), Goretzka (59')
de Ligt (27'), Laimer (90+1')
Apr 22, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 29
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Ajorque (65'), Barreiro (73'), Caricol (79')
Mane (29')
Feb 1, 2023 7.45pm
Round of 16
Mainz
0-4
Bayern
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
Oct 29, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 12
Bayern
6-2
Mainz
Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
Widmer (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82')
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 32
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern97203272523
2RB Leipzig96211551020
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt95222314917
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen94412015516
5Borussia DortmundDortmund95131715216
6Freiburg95131311216
7Union BerlinUnion Berlin943298115
8Stuttgart93421716113
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach94141514113
10Werder Bremen93331520-512
11Augsburg93241320-711
12Heidenheim93151212010
13Mainz 05Mainz92431213-110
14Wolfsburg92341617-19
15St Pauli9225711-48
16Hoffenheim92251319-68
17Holstein Kiel91261123-125
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum9018929-201


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