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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 82.44%. A draw had a probability of 11.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.07%) and 4-0 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (1.9%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
82.44% ( 0.07) | 11.53% ( -0.04) | 6.03% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 47.9% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.6% ( 0.11) | 29.4% ( -0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
49.53% ( 0.13) | 50.47% ( -0.13) |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.74% ( 0.03) | 5.26% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
79.25% ( 0.1) | 20.75% ( -0.09) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.56% ( 0) | 49.44% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.74% ( 0) | 84.26% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
2-0 @ 11.27% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 11.07% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 7.8% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 5.74% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.75% 6-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) 7-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.64% Total : 82.43% | 1-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.74% Total : 11.53% | 1-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 1.83% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.3% Total : 6.03% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 36 | 7 | 29 | 29 |
2 | RB Leipzig | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 20 |
4 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 17 |
5 | Freiburg | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 17 |
6 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 16 |
7 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 16 |
8 | Werder Bremen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 15 |
9 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 14 |
10 | Mainz 05Mainz | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
11 | Stuttgart | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 13 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 12 |
13 | Augsburg | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 12 |
14 | Heidenheim | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 9 |
16 | St Pauli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 2 |
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