Bundesliga | Gameweek 25
Mar 9, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
Bayern8 - 1Mainz
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Lazio
Tuesday, March 5 at 8pm in Champions League
Tuesday, March 5 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Borussia M'bach
Saturday, March 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Saturday, March 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
We said: Bayern Munich 4-1 Mainz 05
Bayern will enter Saturday's contest as firm favourites, but they are aware that there is no room for error from now until the end of the season if they are to keep their slim hopes of retaining the Bundesliga title alive. Mainz cannot be written off entirely as they are fighting for their lives at the wrong end of the table and have marginally improved under Henriksen, but Bayern should ultimately have the firepower to outscore their opponents en route to a comfortable victory. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 82.44%. A draw had a probability of 11.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.07%) and 4-0 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (1.9%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
82.44% ( 0.07) | 11.53% ( -0.04) | 6.03% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 47.9% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.6% ( 0.11) | 29.4% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.53% ( 0.13) | 50.47% ( -0.13) |
| Bayern Munich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.74% ( 0.03) | 5.26% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 79.25% ( 0.1) | 20.75% ( -0.09) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.56% ( 0) | 49.44% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 15.74% ( 0) | 84.26% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
Bayern Munich 82.43%
Mainz 05 6.03%
Draw 11.53%
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-0 @ 11.27% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 11.07% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 7.8% ( 0)1-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 5.74% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.75% 6-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)7-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.64% Total : 82.43% | 1-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.74% Total : 11.53% | 1-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 1.83% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.3% Total : 6.03% |
How you voted: Bayern vs Mainz
Bayern Munich
88.1%Draw
10.7%Mainz 05
1.2%84
Head to Head
Apr 22, 2023 2.30pm
Feb 1, 2023 7.45pm
Oct 29, 2022 2.30pm
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 32
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
