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Bundesliga | Gameweek 23
Feb 23, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
BayArena
Mainz logo

B. Leverkusen
2 - 1
Mainz

Xhaka (3'), Andrich (68')
Frimpong (45+1'), Alonso (45+1'), Tah (49'), Wirtz (74')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Kohr (7')
Onisiwo (42'), Kohr (52'), Zentner (54'), Caci (66'), Mwene (85')
Ngankam (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Heidenheim 1-2 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, February 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Mainz 1-0 Augsburg
Saturday, February 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Mainz 05

 Both teams will be determined to claim all three points for different reasons, and although Mainz celebrated success at the BayArena last season, there is no hiding the fact that Leverkusen enter Friday's contest as firm favourites to come out on top. Alonso and co have shown that they still boast an attacking threat even without the presence of Boniface, and they should ultimately have few problems breaching Mainz's backline en route to claiming a title-boosting victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 69.9%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 12.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.97%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
69.9% (0.045000000000002 0.05) 17.27% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01) 12.83% (-0.036 -0.04)
Both teams to score 55.23% (-0.073 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.85% (-0.040000000000006 -0.04)35.15% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.84% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)57.16% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.98% (0.0010000000000048 0)9.02% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.28%30.72% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.7% (-0.080999999999996 -0.08)39.29% (0.080999999999996 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07)76% (0.075000000000003 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 69.89%
    Mainz 05 12.83%
    Draw 17.27%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 10.25% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.58% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 8.53% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 8.23% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-1 @ 7.68% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 4.95% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.62%
3-2 @ 3.59% (-0.008 -0.01)
5-0 @ 2.38% (0.0049999999999999 0)
5-1 @ 2.22% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-2 @ 2.16% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
5-2 @ 1.04% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
6-0 @ 0.95% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.72%
Total : 69.89%
1-1 @ 7.97% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-2 @ 4.47% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.54% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.12% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 17.27%
1-2 @ 3.72% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-1 @ 3.31%
0-2 @ 1.55% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.39% (-0.006 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.16% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 12.83%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Mainz

Bayer Leverkusen
89.4%
Draw
4.5%
Mainz 05
6.1%
132
Head to Head
Sep 30, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Fernandes (58'), Gruda (75'), Richter (90+2'), Barreiro (90+4')
Van den Berg (18' og.), Grimaldo (59'), Hofmann (65')
Xhaka (4')
> Preview
Feb 19, 2023 6.30pm
Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
2-3
Mainz
Amiri (32'), Schick (58')
Caci (26'), Barreiro (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82' pen.)
> Preview
Aug 27, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Burgzorg (70')
Palacios (29'), Frimpong (39', 41')
Hincapie (3'), Andrich (45'), Frimpong (60'), Bakker (76')
Hincapie (77'), Bakker (90+4')
> Preview
Feb 18, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Mainz
3-2
B. Leverkusen
Caricol (57'), Boetius (84'), Ingvartsen (88')
Caricol (66'), Ingvartsen (90+5')
Schick (35'), Alario (74')
Adli (31'), Demirbay (56')
> Preview
Sep 25, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
B. Leverkusen
1-0
Mainz
Wirtz (62')
Tah (11'), Diaby (44'), Bakker (83'), Alario (90+3')

Lucoqui (44'), Stach (69'), Jae-sung (86')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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