Newly-promoted St Pauli have the seemingly impossible task of trying to beat Bundesliga giants Bayern Munich when they host the league leaders on Saturday at Millerntor-Stadion.
The home side are fourth last in the table in 15th place with eight points after nine games and beat Hoffenheim 2-0 on November 2, whereas the Bavarians have 23 points and defeated Union Berlin 3-0 last Saturday.
Match preview
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St Pauli had just 32% possession and produced seven shots against Hoffenheim while facing 12 attempts themselves, though both sides created two big chances in that match.
The home team's win was their first victory in their last five games having lost three and drawn one in that period, and it was also their second consecutive clean sheet.
Boss Alexander Blessin said that while he was pleased to have taken three points, he thought that Hoffenheim were dangerous on the flanks, and he also noted that his players could have been more aggressive out of possession.
Blessin's side have scored seven goals and conceded 11 times in the Bundesliga in 2024-25, and these are the division's worst offensive and joint fourth-best defensive records.
St Pauli have failed to achieve victory in any of their four home fixtures this term, drawing twice and losing twice, though they did keep two clean sheets in that time.
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Opponents Bayern narrowly beat Benfica 1-0 in their fourth Champions League game of the season on Wednesday thanks to Jamal Musiala's 67th-minute goal.
To manager Vincent Kompany's credit, his team managed to restrict the Portuguese outfit to just one shot in the entire game, and the win will be a welcome boost for the Bayern boss considering his side had lost their prior two games in the competition.
The Bavarians were also quite dominant during their win against Union Berlin given they created over 2.5 xG and limited Die Eisernen to less than 0.5 xG.
The visitors have now kept four clean sheets in their last four games while also scoring 13 goals in those matches.
Bayern triumphed in their three most recent Bundesliga fixtures and won four and drew two of the prior six in the league.
Kompany's side have been rampant away from home this season, winning four of their five games on the road in the top flight having scored 22 goals in that time.
Team News
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St Pauli goalkeepers Ben Alexander Voll, Soren Ahlers and Sascha Burchert are ruled out, as is wide player Philipp Treu.
Nikola Vasilj is certain to start in goal, while Manolis Saliakas and Lars Ritzka are likely to appear as wing-backs.
Attackers Conor Metcalfe and Elias Saad, as well as strikers Scott Banks and Simon Zoller are unavailable so expect Blessin to name a forward line consisting of Oladapo Afolayan, Johannes Eggestein and Morgan Guilavogui.
Bayern have fewer injury concerns, but they will still be without midfielder Aleksandar Pavlovic, goalkeeper Sven Ulreich and right-back Sacha Boey, though all three could be available for selection in the near future.
Defenders Hiroki Ito and Josip Stanisic will not feature until December, so perhaps Kompany will field a defensive line of Raphael Guerreiro, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae and Alphonso Davies.
Harry Kane will definitely start up front, and he may be accompanied by forwards Michael Olise, Jamal Musiala and Kingsley Coman.
St Pauli possible starting lineup:
Vasilj; Wahl, Smith, Mets; Saliakas, Irvine, Boukhalfa, Ritzka; Afolayan, Eggestein, Guilavogui
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Guerreiro, Upamecano, Kim, Davies; Kimmich, Palhinha; Olise, Musiala, Coman; Kane
We say: St Pauli 0-4 Bayern Munich
Given the sheer number of attacking absentees for St Pauli, it is difficult to see how they can pose an offensive challenge to Bayern.
Additionally, the visitors have been exceptional goalscorers away from home this season, and they could score multiple times in their clash at Millerntor-Stadion.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
