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Australian A-League | Gameweek 26
Apr 28, 2023 at 10.45am UK
AAMI Park
Western Sydney Wanderers

Melbourne City
3 - 2
Western Sydney

Tilio (49', 90+3'), MacLaren (75')
Bos (36'), Jamieson (81')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Borrello (41'), Milanovic (74')
Layouni (45'), Borrello (45+1'), Schneiderlin (56'), Milanovic (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Western Sydney Wanderers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Western Utd 1-3 Melbourne City
Saturday, April 22 at 10.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Western Sydney 4-0 Wellington
Friday, April 21 at 10.45am in Australian A-League

We said: Melbourne City 2-0 Western Sydney Wanderers

This is set to be a closely contested game between two of the strongest teams in the division, but after winning the main league it is likely Melbourne City that will continue taking their momentum into the finals series. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 57.4%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Western Sydney Wanderers had a probability of 21.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.52%) and 1-0 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for a Western Sydney Wanderers win it was 1-2 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Melbourne CityDrawWestern Sydney Wanderers
57.4% (1.206 1.21) 21.31% (-0.337 -0.34) 21.29% (-0.87 -0.87)
Both teams to score 59.44% (-0.099999999999994 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.54% (0.452 0.45)38.46% (-0.45399999999999 -0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.25% (0.476 0.48)60.75% (-0.479 -0.48)
Melbourne City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.76% (0.51600000000001 0.52)13.24% (-0.517 -0.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.99% (1.034 1.03)40% (-1.036 -1.04)
Western Sydney Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.51% (-0.52499999999999 -0.52)31.49% (0.524 0.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.12% (-0.611 -0.61)67.88% (0.60899999999999 0.61)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne City 57.4%
    Western Sydney Wanderers 21.29%
    Draw 21.31%
Melbourne CityDrawWestern Sydney Wanderers
2-1 @ 9.85% (0.023000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.52% (0.142 0.14)
1-0 @ 8.43% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-1 @ 6.64% (0.141 0.14)
3-0 @ 5.75% (0.203 0.2)
3-2 @ 3.84% (0.027 0.03)
4-1 @ 3.36% (0.134 0.13)
4-0 @ 2.9% (0.155 0.16)
4-2 @ 1.94% (0.05 0.05)
5-1 @ 1.36% (0.078 0.08)
5-0 @ 1.18% (0.084 0.08)
Other @ 3.65%
Total : 57.4%
1-1 @ 9.74% (-0.165 -0.16)
2-2 @ 5.69% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-0 @ 4.17% (-0.091 -0.09)
3-3 @ 1.48% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 21.31%
1-2 @ 5.63% (-0.179 -0.18)
0-1 @ 4.82% (-0.177 -0.18)
0-2 @ 2.78% (-0.143 -0.14)
2-3 @ 2.19% (-0.059 -0.06)
1-3 @ 2.17% (-0.102 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.07% (-0.072 -0.07)
Other @ 2.63%
Total : 21.29%

How you voted: Melbourne City vs Western Sydney

Melbourne City
59.1%
Draw
18.2%
Western Sydney Wanderers
22.7%
22
Head to Head
Jan 15, 2023 4am
Feb 11, 2022 8.45am
gameweek 14
Western Sydney
1-3
Melbourne City
Petratos (80' pen.)
Leckie (36', 43'), Berenguer (64')
Jan 9, 2022 7.45am
gameweek 26
Melbourne City
3-3
Western Sydney
Galloway (16'), MacLaren (36'), Tilio (60')
Leckie (34'), Jamieson (90+3')
Troisi (5'), Rodwell (9'), Ogawa (69')
Aquilina (44')
Mar 26, 2021 8.05am
gameweek 14
Melbourne City
4-1
Western Sydney
Noone (33', 55'), Nabbout (52'), MacLaren (90+2')
Good (50')
Ibini-Isei (21')
Mutch (83')
Mar 2, 2021 8.05am
gameweek 15
Western Sydney
0-2
Melbourne City

Baccus (39'), Mutch (63')
MacLaren (6', 54')
rhs 2.0
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1.15am
Bengals
@
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Tables header RHS


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