Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 57.4%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Western Sydney Wanderers had a probability of 21.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.52%) and 1-0 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for a Western Sydney Wanderers win it was 1-2 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
Result | ||
Melbourne City | Draw | Western Sydney Wanderers |
57.4% ( 1.21) | 21.31% ( -0.34) | 21.29% ( -0.87) |
Both teams to score 59.44% ( -0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.54% ( 0.45) | 38.46% ( -0.45) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.25% ( 0.48) | 60.75% ( -0.48) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.76% ( 0.52) | 13.24% ( -0.52) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.99% ( 1.03) | 40% ( -1.04) |
Western Sydney Wanderers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.51% ( -0.52) | 31.49% ( 0.52) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.12% ( -0.61) | 67.88% ( 0.61) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne City | Draw | Western Sydney Wanderers |
2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.14) 1-0 @ 8.43% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.64% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 5.75% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.36% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.16) 4-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.65% Total : 57.4% | 1-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.31% | 1-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.18) 0-1 @ 4.82% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.63% Total : 21.29% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
2 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
3 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
5 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
6 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
7 | Macarthur | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
8 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
9 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
10 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
11 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
> Australian A-League Full Table |