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Rugby World Cup | Final
Oct 28, 2023 at 8pm UK
 
New Zealand
11-12
South Africa
Barrett (59')
FT

Preview: New Zealand vs. South Africa - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Rugby World Cup clash between New Zealand and South Africa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The wait is finally over, and after two months of intense competition, New Zealand and South Africa will square off in the 2023 Rugby World Cup final at Stade de France on Saturday, October 28, 2023.

Twenty teams came into the tournament, and now only two remain to battle for the Webb Ellis Cup and also take the outright lead as the only nation in the world to have lifted the coveted trophy on four separate occasions.


Match preview

New Zealand's Beauden Barrett and Will Jordan celebrate with teammates after the match on October 18, 2023© Reuters

Following an underwhelming warm-up campaign that included a humbling 35-7 loss against this opponent at Twickenham, New Zealand were expected to find it difficult in this tournament, and some had even written them off from reaching the latter stages.

Then, after a 27-12 defeat to the hosts in the tournament's opening game, the All Blacks faced even more scepticism, but they rebounded in true champion style by securing victories against Italy, Namibia, and Uruguay to progress from the group stage behind France.

However, it was in the quarter-final that Ian Foster's side proved why they can never be disregarded in this competition by displaying their incredible resilience and defeating the highly regarded Irish side 28-24 with a near-perfect performance in a match for the ages.

Thereafter, the All Blacks continued their impressive form with a commanding 44-6 win over Argentina last Friday and, in fairness, looked as though they never got out of second gear as they eased into the final.

Indeed, Foster's reign has been a challenging one for the Kiwis, marked by record lows and a perceived loss of the feared All Blacks strength. However, a successful performance this weekend by Sam Cane and co could potentially redeem much of the mediocrity and provide a fitting send-off for their coach.

South Africa's Vincent Koch, Deon Fourie and teammates celebrate after the match on October 21, 2023© Reuters

Meanwhile, South Africa are aiming to achieve the rare feat of becoming only the second team to successfully defend the World Cup title, a milestone previously accomplished solely by the All Blacks.

Despite being a team widely recognised as a solid contender, the Springboks entered the tournament as only the fourth favourites behind France, Ireland and New Zealand, and there were concerns about whether they would make it out of the group of death, which also featured Scotland.

However, the Springboks began their campaign with an excellent 18-3 victory over the Scots, followed by a dominant performance against Romania, and despite a setback with a 13-8 loss to Ireland, they clinched second place with a final group stage triumph over Tonga.

The quarter-final against France turned out to be one of the most gripping Rugby Union matches ever, and with an incredible late effort, South Africa clinched victory in the closing moments with a clutch penalty from Handre Pollard.

Last week in the semi-final, the defending champions appeared physically drained for large parts against England, but through sheer will and determination, they remained in the contest before Pollard stepped up once again to secure a second one-point victory in succession.

New Zealand are undoubtedly the fresher team, having had a more straightforward previous match and an extra day to recover, though South Africa is known for excelling in crunch situations and possess an unparalleled ability to harness the passion and support of their nation, playing for a cause beyond the game itself, and instilling hope as demonstrated in their past Webb Ellis Cup triumphs.

New Zealand Rugby World Cup form:

  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W


South Africa Rugby World Cup form:

  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W


Team News

South Africa's Handre Pollard scores a conversion kick on October 21, 2023© Reuters

Foster has made two adjustments to the matchday squad for the Rugby World Cup final against the Springboks, with Brodie Retallick returning to the starting lineup as the sole change from the starting 15 that secured a one-sided victory over Argentina in the semi-finals last weekend.

He takes the place of Sam Whitelock in the starting lineup, with Whitelock moving to the bench, while Scott Barrett remains in the engine room in the pack alongside Retallick for the crucial game in Paris.

The only other adjustment to the 23-man squad is seen among the substitutes, with Nepo Laulala chosen over Fletcher Newell as the backup tighthead prop.

As for the Springboks, Jacques Nienaber has sprung yet another surprise on his opponents by unleashing the 'Bomb Squad' in this match, as he did to excellent effect in their record-breaking win over this opponent back in August.

Beyond the pack, there are another two unexpected changes with Pollard and Faf de Klerk starting in the halves pairing, which means that Manie Libbok and Cobus Reinach will play no part in the match with Willie le Roux being the only back in the 7-1 split.

The experienced midfield duo of Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel remains intact in the centre positions, while the back-three remains unchanged, featuring Damian Willemse alongside the dynamic wing pair of Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse.


New Zealand starting lineup: 15. Beauden Barrett, 14. Will Jordan, 13. Rieko Ioane, 12. Jordie Barrett, 11. Mark Tele'a, 10. Richie Mo'unga, 9. Aaron Smith, 8. Ardie Savea, 7. Sam Cane (c), 6. Shannon Frizell, 5. Scott Barrett, 4. Brodie Retallick, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 2. Codie Taylor, 1. Ethan de Groot

Replacements: 16. Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Nepo Laulala, 19. Samuel Whitelock, 20. Dalton Papali'i, 21. Finlay Christie, 22. Damian McKenzie, 23. Anton Lienert-Brown


South Africa starting lineup: 15. Damian Willemse, 14. Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13. Jesse Kriel, 12. Damian de Allende, 11. Cheslin Kolbe, 10. Handre Pollard, 9. Faf de Klerk, 8. Duane Vermeulen, 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6. Siya Kolisi (c), 5. Franco Mostert, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Frans Malherbe, 2. Bongi Mbonambi, 1. Steven Kitshoff

Replacements: 16. Deon Fourie, 17. Ox Nche, 18. Trevor Nyakane, 19. Jean Kleyn, 20. RG Snyman, 21. Kwagga Smith, 22. Jasper Wiese, 23. Willie le Roux


Head To Head

In the long history of their rivalry, the All Blacks and Springboks have faced each other 105 times, with the All Blacks holding the lead with 62 victories to South Africa's 39, while four matches ended in a draw. They clashed twice this year, and in the Rugby Championship, New Zealand emerged victorious over the Springboks with a 35-20 win in Auckland, while South Africa won the warm-up match back in August 35-7.


SM words green background

We say: New Zealand 20-23 South Africa

This is a rematch 28 years in the making, and there is very little to choose between these two rugby powerhouses, who will leave absolutely everything on the field in an attempt to claim the title for a record fourth time. The big question is whether South Africa have enough left in reserve, having already faced France, England, Ireland, and Scotland in this competition already.

The Springboks have made something of a habit of digging deep when their backs are against the wall, and if the defending champions can lift themselves one more time, we feel they will be able to pull off the win here.

No Data Analysis info



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Written by
Devesh Jaganath

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Game History

How you voted: New Zealand vs South Africa

New Zealand
48.1%
Draw
1.9%
South Africa
50.0%
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