We said: Lazio 1-2 Atalanta BC
Though goals have started to dry up since Duvan Zapata was struck down by injury - at least by their own free-scoring standards - Atalanta can edge out their hosts at the Olimpico thanks to a squad with several attacking options.
While Lazio are equally adept at finding the net, much relies on a few key cogs to turn smoothly, and the combination of defensive lapses and some integral absences could tilt the balance in their visitors' favour.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 44.36%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.02%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Lazio win was 2-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
