The Seattle Sounders will finish their regular-season home campaign on Monday when they play host to the Los Angeles Galaxy at Lumen Field.
Seattle are winless in four consecutive games, their longest such streak since 2019, while LA can clinch a playoff berth with a win and some help in this one.
Match preview
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In 2021, consistency has been one of the many characteristics that we would associate with the Rave Green, but that has seemingly disappeared since mid-October.
Even though it has not hurt them all that much in the table, the Sounders are no longer in control of their destiny when it comes to first place in the Western Conference, with Sporting Kansas City holding more wins and a superior goal difference, as well as a game in hand.
Brian Schmetzer saw his side come out mainly flat on Tuesday against Los Angeles FC, suffering through their worst defeat of the year, while their defence have been uncharacteristically poor lately, conceding eight goals in their last three games after only allowing seven in their previous nine encounters.
Following their defeat to LA, Schmetzer said that he was livid with how his side performed at the back as they gifted their opponents three goals in the opening 51 minutes.
With two games remaining, the worst that they can finish is third, but with a victory in either one of those encounters, they will snag at least second place and, with it, a spot in the 2022 CONCACAF Champions League.
They will be more concerned about playing back up to their potential instead of worrying about where they finish the regular season, and they have only lost one of their final two matches heading into the playoffs since 2016.
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On Wednesday, a recurring theme came up for the Galaxy, which we have seen many times this year, an inability to get comfortable and find their way into a match.
Greg Vanney tried his best to get his side into their game against Sporting Kansas City with tactical adjustments, but they found themselves chasing their opponents more often than not.
LA have been a little too narrow in several matches this year, limiting their space and ability to create a lot of chances moving forward, which was evident against the Wizards.
There is no more room for error now as the Galaxy are just a point above the playoff line, heading into a venue in Lumen Field where they have not won since 2016.
The Galaxy have fought extremely hard to get themselves into a position to make it back into the postseason, but their style of play has left them vulnerable to the counter, and their defensive shape has not been strong all year, conceding the third-most goals in the Western Conference (50).
They have been able to find more balanced scoring of late than earlier this season when everything was going through Chicharito, but they may need their star striker to put on a couple of virtuoso performances to get them into the postseason as he is without a doubt their biggest game changer.
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Team News
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There is a chance that Jordan Morris could see the field for Seattle on Monday, with the American striker putting in a solid training session earlier this week as he seems to have recovered from an ACL injury.
Nicolas Lodeiro came on as a second-half substitute on Tuesday, Jordy Delem is out with a right ACL tear, Schmetzer has said that there is a chance that Raul Ruidiaz could play despite a left hamstring issue, but he did rule out Will Bruin, who took a knock in their defeat to LAFC, and Brad Smith is questionable with a right AC joint sprain.
Getting Joao Paulo back from his yellow card suspension should be a big boost to their midfield that did not have a lot of creativity or flow in their ball movement in their previous match.
While Paulo has been instrumental in winning balls in the middle of the pitch, Yeimar Gomez has been rock solid at the back, leading the league in interceptions with 84 and second in tackles won with 53, one back of Claudio Bravo.
The Galaxy will have Nick DePuy available after he missed their match on Wednesday because of yellow card accumulation, and Jorge Villafana remains questionable with an undisclosed injury.
Vanney made several changes to his starting 11 in midweek, including Sega Coulibaly replacing DePuy, Julian Araujo started in defence over Oniel Fisher, Sebastian Lletget took the place of Kevin Cabral in midfield, Samuel Grandsir was inserted in the lineup instead of Efrain Alvarez and Dejan Joveljic was the lone striker up high, replacing Chicharito.
Sacha Kljestan put the Galaxy in front in their previous meeting with the Sounders this year and Jonathan Bond made five saves, but it was not enough as the Sounders came back to win 2-1.
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Frei; Tolo, O'Neill, Gomez; Lodeiro, Rowe, Benezet, A. Roldan; Montero, C. Roldan; Chu
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Bond; Fisher, Williams, Coulibaly, Araujo; Raveloson, Dos Santos; Cabral, Vazquez, Alvarez; Chicharito
We say: Seattle Sounders 1-0 Los Angeles Galaxy
Surely we will not see another poor performance by the Sounders in this one, but if Ruidiaz cannot go, it might be tough for them to produce the quality needed in the final third.
The Galaxy have been a little too one dimensional in recent weeks, allowing far too many good opportunities over their past two matches, going down two goals each time, but should they fall behind against the Sounders, coming back will not be so easy as the Rave Green are the joint top defensive unit in the league along with Nashville.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Seattle Sounders win with a probability of 58.21%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 19.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Seattle Sounders win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.75%) and 2-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.22%), while for a Los Angeles Galaxy win it was 1-2 (5.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
