A 13-year MLS playoff streak may come to an end this weekend when the New York Red Bulls host Toronto at Red Bull Arena on Saturday.
Earlier this week New York kept their playoff hopes intact with a 2-1 victory over FC Cincinnati, while Toronto will miss the post-season for a third successive campaign after losing 3-0 at Charlotte FC, the fifth successive defeat for them in this competition.
Match preview
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The Red Bulls' hopes of a 14th successive post-season appearance are still alive as a pair of early goals in Cincinnati gave them an unexpected three points against the Supporters' Shield winners, who have the best home record in the league this year (13-2-1).
A defeat for them on Saturday combined with either a New York City FC or CF Montreal victory though would officially eliminate the Red Bulls from playoff contention for the first time since 2009, ending the longest active post-season streak in Major League Soccer.
Troy Lesesne's side are winless in their last three domestic home fixtures, equalling their longest run of the campaign, while they have claimed just one out of a possible nine points over that stretch.
New York are unbeaten domestically in 2023 when scoring multiple times in a single match, winning on six of those seven occasions, but they have only managed to do that seven times all season.
They have only lost once versus teams currently below them in the Eastern Conference table but have never beaten any of those sides domestically at Red Bull Arena, suffering a 2-0 defeat at home to Inter Miami while coming back from a two-goal deficit to earn a 2-2 draw with Charlotte.
Heading into this encounter, the Red Bulls are unbeaten in eight successive MLS fixtures against Toronto and have not lost a regular season home contest against them since 2016 (2-0).
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From here on out, the Reds have only pride to play for and judging from their results of late, that appears to be in short supply as this team have not won a league contest since late August - a 3-1 win over the Philadelphia Union.
Their MLS form away from home this year has been abysmal, to say the least, with TFC having lost eight successive road matches in this competition, while they have been outscored 17-0 in their previous six games as the visiting team.
When you concede the second-most goals in the league (54) and score the second-fewest (26), it should come as no surprise to be at the bottom of the overall standings with a mere 22 points so far, as TFC are guaranteed to finish dead-last in the Eastern Conference.
The John Herdman era cannot come soon enough for this team, who will be stuck with Terry Dunfield for one more match, with the Reds losing 13 of their 14 games in all competitions under his guidance.
Should they fail to emerge victorious from this clash on Saturday, it would mark the first time in club history that they finish an MLS regular season without a single away triumph.
TFC have not won a regular-season away contest versus either New York club since defeating New York City FC 1-0 in Harrison, New Jersey, in September 2020, while they have only netted once in their five previous visits to Red Bull Arena against the Red Bulls.
Team News
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New York will be without Dante Vanzeir and Lewis Morgan for the remainder of the season due to a back and hip injury, respectively.
Serge Ngoma is doubtful this weekend with a sore hip, while Hassan Ndam is eligible to return after missing their midweek clash against Cincy because of a yellow card suspension.
Goals from Frankie Amaya and Elias Manoel were enough to propel the Red Bulls to a narrow victory over the Orange and Blue this week, as Carlos Coronel only faced two shots in the victory.
Coronel has not conceded in his last two matches played against the Reds, while Morgan and Luquinhas were on the mark in this exact fixture last year, helping New York triumph by a 2-0 score.
As has been the case throughout the campaign TFC were without numerous players through injury on Wednesday, with Brandon Servania (lower body), Lorenzo Insigne (lower body), Adama Diomande (lower body), Greg Ranjitsingh (knee surgery), Sean Johnson (hand surgery), Raoul Petretta (back spasms), Deandre Kerr (back spasms) and Latif Blessing (concussion protocol) all sitting out against Charlotte.
Luka Gavran has had anything but a memorable start to his MLS career, conceding nine goals in his three encounters between the sticks for Toronto since replacing Tomas Romero.
Michael Bradley has only scored once for Toronto against his former team, having played for New York when they were known as the Metro Stars in 2004 and 2005, while Victor Vazquez was on the scoresheet the last time they defeated the Red Bulls away from home as he and former striker Sebastian Giovinco each found the back of the net in a 2-1 triumph during the 2017 playoffs.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; D. Nealis, Reyes, S. Nealis, Tolkin; Yearwood, Amaya, Edelman; Luquinhas, Fernandez, Manoel
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Gavran; Franklin, Rosted, Bradley, Mabika, Marshall-Rutty; Osorio; Vazquez, Coello, Owusu; Bernardeschi
We say: New York Red Bulls 2-0 Toronto
Returning to the post-season might be a stretch for New York this year but shutting down a side without much attacking depth should not be a problem for a defensive unit as well organised as the Red Bulls.
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Top tip
Joel Lefevre
