Two teams battling for their lives towards the bottom of the La Liga table will lock horns for a relegation six-pointer on Tuesday evening, as Mallorca welcome Alaves to Visit Mallorca Estadi.
Mallorca are currently 17th in the division, one point ahead of 18th-placed Cadiz, while Alaves are bottom of Spain's top flight, four points behind their opponents ahead of this contest.
Match preview
© Reuters
Mallorca secured a return to La Liga by finishing second in the Segunda Division last season, and they are bidding to make it back-to-back campaigns at this level of football for the first time since 2013.
The Pirates have won seven, drawn eight and lost 17 of their 32 league matches this season to collect 29 points, which has left them in 17th in the table, one point ahead of 18th-placed Cadiz, who are in action against Barcelona on Monday night.
Mallorca are only three points behind 15th-placed Getafe, meanwhile, so there could be a lot of movement over the next couple of matches, and the home side managed to record a 1-0 victory over Atletico Madrid in their last match in front of their own supporters on April 9.
Javier Aguirre's side will enter this game off the back of a 3-0 defeat at Elche on Saturday, though, and the fact that two of their next three matches after this one are against Barcelona and Sevilla is a concern.
Mallorca have picked up 21 of their 29 points this season on home soil, and they will be welcoming an Alaves outfit with the worst away record in the division, having claimed just six points from 16 fixtures.
© Reuters
Alaves, meanwhile, will enter this match off the back of a morale-boosting 1-0 win over Rayo Vallecano on Saturday, with Joselu finding the back of the net in the 64th minute of the contest.
Julio Velazquez's side are bottom of the table heading into this match but sit just four points behind 17th-placed Mallorca, so they will still feel confident of escaping the relegation zone before the end of the season.
Levante, who are 19th, recorded a 4-1 win over Granada on Sunday, while as mentioned, 18th-placed Cadiz play Barcelona on Monday night, so both Alaves and Mallorca could be in the bottom three heading into this game.
El Glorioso are playing in their sixth straight season at this level of football, so it would be somewhat of a surprise if they dropped out of the top tier, having not played Segunda Division football since 2016.
Alaves have lost their last two league matches against Mallorca, including a 1-0 defeat in the reverse match earlier this season, and a defeat in this contest would be a huge blow at a key stage of the season.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Mallorca will be missing Salva Sevilla, Aleksandar Sedlar, Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta and Dominik Greif for Tuesday's contest, while Jaume Costa is out with the muscular issue that he picked up against Elche.
Costa's absence will open the door for Giovanni Gonzalez to come into the starting side, while there is also likely to be a chance in a wide area, with Takefusa Kubo pushing to replace Dani Rodriguez.
Head coach Aguirre is likely to resist the temptation to make wholesale changes, though, with Vedat Muriqi again set to lead the line, while Amath Ndiaye should retain his spot in the wide.
As for Alaves, Pere Pons and Javi Lopez will miss the contest through injury, but Luis Rioja and Edgar Mendez are both available for selection despite concerns over their fitness.
Head coach Velazquez will have been delighted with his team's performance against Rayo Vallecano, so there might just be one change from the side that took to the field for the first whistle last time out.
Indeed, Jason was replaced by Manu Garcia off the bench at the interval and that alteration could now take place before the start, while Rioja and Mendez should again keep their spots in attack.
Mallorca possible starting lineup:
Rico; Maffeo, Valjent, Raillo, Olivan, Gonzalez; Ndiaye, Sanchez, Baba, Kubo; Muriqi
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Tenaglia, Laguardia, Lejeune, Navarro; M Garcia, Escalante, Loum, Rioja; Mendez, Joselu
We say: Mallorca 2-1 Alaves
Alaves have been so disappointing on their travels in the league this season, so it is difficult to back the visitors with any real confidence despite their win over Rayo last time out. Mallorca have been relatively strong at home this season, meanwhile, and we fancy the Pirates to shade a close contest here.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mallorca win with a probability of 56.26%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 19.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mallorca win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.29%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (7.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Mallorca in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Mallorca.
