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Barrow
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Walsall
Swindon Town
League Two | Gameweek 46
Apr 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
County Ground
Morecambe

Swindon
3 - 3
Morecambe

Austin (5', 35'), Kokolo (74')
McCarthy (46')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Adams (15'), Fairclough (21'), Smith (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Swindon Town and Morecambe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-0 Swindon
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Morecambe 1-2 Forest Green
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Swindon Town 1-1 Morecambe

It has been a disappointing campaign for both teams, with each likely looking forward to the season drawing to a close this weekend. With that in mind, it would not be a surprise to see them battle it out to a draw, particularly due to the poor form Swindon and Morecambe have coming into this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 53.38%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.69%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Swindon TownDrawMorecambe
53.38% (0.034000000000006 0.03) 21.89% (0.0019999999999989 0) 24.72% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Both teams to score 61.98% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.84% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)37.15% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.64% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)59.36% (0.047999999999995 0.05)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.96% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)14.04% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.4% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)41.6% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Morecambe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.11% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)27.89% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.49% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)63.5% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Swindon Town 53.38%
    Morecambe 24.72%
    Draw 21.89%
Swindon TownDrawMorecambe
2-1 @ 9.64% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 7.69% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.55% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.31% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-0 @ 4.94% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 4.03% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 3.1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 2.42% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.98% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1.22%
5-0 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 53.38%
1-1 @ 9.82% (0.004999999999999 0)
2-2 @ 6.15% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.92% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.71% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 21.89%
1-2 @ 6.27% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 5% (0.0029999999999992 0)
0-2 @ 3.19% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.62% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.36% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 24.72%

How you voted: Swindon vs Morecambe

Swindon Town
87.5%
Draw
12.5%
Morecambe
0.0%
8
Head to Head
Sep 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 9
Morecambe
2-2
Swindon
Taylor (31'), Walker (80')
Connolly (33'), Songo'o (54')
Songo'o (55')
Kemp (12'), Austin (57' pen.)
Khan (78'), Kemp (90+5')
Apr 13, 2020 3pm
Aug 31, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 6
Swindon
3-1
Morecambe
Doyle (5', 21'), Yates (17')
Mar 23, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 39
Swindon
4-0
Morecambe
Robinson (10'), Woolery (42'), Conroy (66'), Bennett (81')
Bennett (80')

Kenyon (36')
Sep 8, 2018 3pm
Gameweek 7
Morecambe
0-1
Swindon

Old (78')
Adebayo (26')
McCourt (78')
Knoyle (35')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall25184352232958
2Crewe AlexandraCrewe261210434221246
3Port Vale2612863227544
4AFC Wimbledon24134737191843
5Notts County25127641261543
6Doncaster RoversDoncaster2612773630643
7Salford City2512672921842
8Bradford CityBradford2511863427741
9Grimsby Town26122123741-438
10Chesterfield259883930935
11Bromley2581073531434
12MK Dons25104113937234
13Fleetwood TownFleetwood248973229333
14Colchester UnitedColchester2671273028233
15Cheltenham TownCheltenham2587103438-431
16Gillingham2493122225-330
17BarrowBarrow2577112328-528
18Swindon TownSwindon27610113341-828
19Harrogate TownHarrogate2784152338-1528
20Newport CountyNewport2475123243-1126
21Accrington StanleyAccrington2467113243-1125
22Tranmere RoversTranmere2567121839-2125
23Morecambe2555152240-1820
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2546151939-2018


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