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Championship header 2

League Two
Carlisle United
League Two | Gameweek 21
Jan 31, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Brunton Park
Barrow

Carlisle
5 - 1
Barrow

Mellish (44', 67'), Garner (50'), Patrick (72'), Dennis (89' pen.)
Mellish (76'), Gibson (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Barclay (84' og.)
Ray (34'), Gotts (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League Two clash between Carlisle United and Barrow, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Rochdale 0-1 Carlisle
Saturday, January 28 at 3pm in League Two

Barrow

All competitions
Last Game: Barrow 0-2 Northampton
Saturday, January 28 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Carlisle United 1-1 Barrow

 A cagey affair could be in store between two sides separated by just one point in the standings, and neither crop of players have covered themselves in glory recently. Barrow should give themselves a fighting chance of avoiding yet another defeat on the road if they can cut out the individual errors, but Carlisle may have to accept another point on their own territory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 46.24%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Barrow had a probability of 26.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Barrow win it was 0-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawBarrow
46.24% (1.06 1.06) 27.27% (-0.397 -0.4) 26.49% (-0.667 -0.67)
Both teams to score 46.51% (0.611 0.61)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.74% (1.014 1.01)58.26% (-1.016 -1.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.11% (0.788 0.79)78.89% (-0.79000000000001 -0.79)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.81% (0.989 0.99)25.19% (-0.991 -0.99)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.08% (1.346 1.35)59.92% (-1.349 -1.35)
Barrow Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.17% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)37.82% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.4% (-0.004999999999999 -0)74.6% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 46.23%
    Barrow 26.49%
    Draw 27.27%
Carlisle UnitedDrawBarrow
1-0 @ 13.13% (-0.14 -0.14)
2-0 @ 9.06% (0.164 0.16)
2-1 @ 8.8% (0.158 0.16)
3-0 @ 4.16% (0.19 0.19)
3-1 @ 4.05% (0.184 0.18)
3-2 @ 1.97% (0.089 0.09)
4-0 @ 1.44% (0.104 0.1)
4-1 @ 1.4% (0.101 0.1)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 46.23%
1-1 @ 12.77% (-0.13 -0.13)
0-0 @ 9.53% (-0.375 -0.38)
2-2 @ 4.28% (0.077 0.08)
Other @ 0.69%
Total : 27.27%
0-1 @ 9.26% (-0.364 -0.36)
1-2 @ 6.21% (-0.064 -0.06)
0-2 @ 4.5% (-0.177 -0.18)
1-3 @ 2.01% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.46% (-0.058 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.39% (0.025 0.02)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 26.49%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Barrow

Carlisle United
73.2%
Draw
7.3%
Barrow
19.5%
41
Head to Head
Oct 18, 2022 7pm
Barrow
2-0
Carlisle
Kay (69'), Foley (80')
Neal (45+1')
Mar 19, 2022 3pm
Barrow
1-2
Carlisle
Banks (78')
Farman (65'), Rooney (90')
Gibson (32'), Dennis (75')
Mellish (47'), Dennis (76'), Dickenson (81')
Nov 13, 2021 1pm
Carlisle
0-0
Barrow

Guy (90+5')

Gordon (51'), Stevens (90+5'), Brough (90+5')
Apr 10, 2021 3pm
Barrow
2-2
Carlisle
Quigley (19'), Brough (24')
Eardley (25'), Quigley (73')
Armer (3'), Zanzala (79' pen.)
Armer (30'), Tanner (52'), Mellish (66')
Oct 3, 2020 3pm
Carlisle
1-0
Barrow
Mellish (24')
Mellish (10'), Anderton (70'), Guy (90+1')
Hayden (55')

Quigley (75'), Brough (80'), Hardcastle (90+4'), Kay (90+7')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall25184352232958
2Crewe AlexandraCrewe261210434221246
3Port Vale2612863227544
4AFC Wimbledon24134737191843
5Notts County25127641261543
6Doncaster RoversDoncaster2612773630643
7Salford City2512672921842
8Bradford CityBradford2511863427741
9Grimsby Town26122123741-438
10Chesterfield259883930935
11Bromley2581073531434
12MK Dons25104113937234
13Fleetwood TownFleetwood248973229333
14Colchester UnitedColchester2671273028233
15Cheltenham TownCheltenham2587103438-431
16Gillingham2493122225-330
17BarrowBarrow2577112328-528
18Swindon TownSwindon27610113341-828
19Harrogate TownHarrogate2784152338-1528
20Newport CountyNewport2475123243-1126
21Accrington StanleyAccrington2467113243-1125
22Tranmere RoversTranmere2567121839-2125
23Morecambe2555152240-1820
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2546151939-2018
> League Two Full Table


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