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League One
Northampton Town
League One | Gameweek 40
Mar 23, 2024 at 3pm UK
Sixfields Stadium
Derby logo

Northampton
1 - 0
Derby

Hoskins (23')
Pinnock (14'), Brady (15'), Leonard (66')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Sibley (45'), Cashin (50')
Bradley (90+10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Northampton Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northampton Town

All competitions
Last Game: Wycombe 2-0 Northampton
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Bolton
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

We said: Northampton Town 1-3 Derby County

 Derby travel to Sixfields off the back of a fine run of form, and we think that the promotion-chasing side will prove too strong for a Northampton team that will be low on confidence following a poor spell of results. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.03%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 16.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.92%) and 1-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-0 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Northampton TownDrawDerby County
16.81% (0.045000000000002 0.05) 23.16%60.03% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Both teams to score 45.68% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.13% (0.071000000000005 0.07)52.86% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.52% (0.061 0.06)74.48% (-0.055000000000007 -0.06)
Northampton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.22% (0.098999999999997 0.1)44.77% (-0.093000000000004 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.25% (0.079999999999998 0.08)80.75% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.72% (0.013000000000005 0.01)17.27% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.39% (0.018000000000001 0.02)47.61% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Northampton Town 16.81%
    Derby County 60.03%
    Draw 23.15%
Northampton TownDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 6.22%
2-1 @ 4.39% (0.013 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.5% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.18% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.03% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 1.51%
Total : 16.81%
1-1 @ 10.91%
0-0 @ 7.73% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 3.85% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 23.15%
0-1 @ 13.58% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-2 @ 11.92% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 9.58% (0.004999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 6.98% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.61% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-4 @ 3.06% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 2.46% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 2.25% (0.008 0.01)
0-5 @ 1.08% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-4 @ 0.99% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 60.03%

How you voted: Northampton vs Derby

Northampton Town
7.0%
Draw
5.3%
Derby County
87.7%
57
Head to Head
Oct 31, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 7
Derby
4-0
Northampton
Bird (14', 32'), Washington (22'), Mendez-Laing (49')
Washington (57')

Brough (2'), Odimayo (71')
> Preview
Feb 4, 2020 7.45pm
Fourth Round
Derby
4-2
Northampton
Wisdom (28'), Holmes (35'), Marriott (51'), Rooney (77' pen.)
Adams (47'), Hoskins (84' pen.)
Watson (55')
> Match Report
Jan 24, 2020 8pm
Fourth Round
Northampton
0-0
Derby
Watson (93')
Bogle (81')
> Match Report
Jul 25, 2017 7.45pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Northampton
1-0
Derby
Richards (18')
Jul 18, 2015 2pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Northampton
0-1
Derby
Russell (32')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham24175242172556
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe26166452282454
3Wrexham26156538201851
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield25146539211848
5Barnsley2612684036442
6Stockport CountyStockport26118740281241
7Reading2512584036441
8Leyton Orient25115932221038
9Bolton WanderersBolton26115103941-238
10Charlton AthleticCharlton2510783126537
11Mansfield TownMansfield2411493228437
12Lincoln CityLincoln269892930-135
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham259792826234
14Exeter CityExeter2695122933-432
15Blackpool2571083437-331
16Stevenage248791922-331
17Wigan AthleticWigan2586112426-230
18Bristol Rovers2584132539-1428
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2676134247-527
20Northampton TownNorthampton2668122440-1626
21Crawley TownCrawley2456132544-1921
22Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2555152645-1920
23Burton Albion2639142340-1718
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge2546152445-2118
> League One Full Table


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