Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 69.73%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 11.73%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.