The playoff race in the MLS Eastern Conference is heating up as Inter Miami are looking to move a little closer to that final spot on Saturday when they host the Columbus Crew from DRV PNK Stadium.
Miami are only four points out of a postseason berth in the East, following their 1-0 win over FC Cincinnati, while the reigning MLS Cup champions are three points below the playoff line after failing to complete their comeback versus Orlando City.
Match preview
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A lot can happen in a 34-game regular season, as you are never out of contention, and there is no greater proof of that this year than Inter Miami.
David Beckham and the front office spent a ton of money during the off-season to try and make this team a success, and at long last, it appears that those investments are starting to pay off.
In late July, the Herons were floundering at the bottom of the standings, with only two wins from their opening 13 games as Phil Neville and his team looked like a fish out of water.
At the end of the month, however, they erased a 1-0 deficit to beat CF Montreal 2-1 in their first come from behind victory of the year, and they have not looked back since then, putting together a nine-match unbeaten run, including four straight wins at home.
With at least one game in hand on the teams above them in the Eastern Conference, they need to keep winning to make the postseason for a second successive campaign.
Since their victory over Montreal, this team have come to life offensively at home with eight goals in their last three matches, but they have been equally sharp on the defensive side of things away from home, collecting back-to-back clean sheets and scoring on their only effort on target last Saturday versus the Orange-and-Blue.
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The Crew cannot seem to catch a break at the moment, as this squad with plenty of talent and fresh off their second MLS Cup triumph are in danger of missing the postseason for the second time in three years.
On Saturday, they dug themselves an early deficit going behind by two goals before the half-hour mark but were able to draw even in the second half only to concede the winner with just over 20 minutes remaining.
In their championship season a year ago, the defensive shape put together by manager Caleb Porter was one of their most prominent attributes, but so far in 2021, it has let them down over and over again, just like it did against the Lions last Saturday.
Needless giveaways have cost them all season, and they continue to make one too many errors, having now lost seven of their last eight encounters, with their previous five defeats being by a single goal.
With 11 games remaining, five of which are at home, the Crew might need a couple of wins on the road in order to qualify for the postseason and have an opportunity to defend their title.
This team have not had the best of luck away from home this season, winning only twice and losing four in a row heading into this match, while being outscored 9-3 over that stretch.
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Team News
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Rodolfo Pizarro was with the Mexican national team this week as they look to qualify for World Cup 2022 next year, while veteran Brek Shea scored the winner last weekend, his second of the year, and Nick Marsman has stopped the last four shots that he has faced, collecting consecutive clean sheets.
Ian Fray, Joevin Jones, Ventura Alvarado and Ryan Shawcross are all out with undisclosed injuries for Miami.
Nicolas Figal set up the winning goal last weekend, his second assist of the season, Gregore returned from his yellow card suspension, Kelvin Leerdam slotted in as a wingback and Indiana Vassilev played upfront, making just his second appearance this season.
The Crew continue to struggle on the injury front with Aidan Morris, Perry Kitchen and Kevin Molino out with left knee injuries, Artur has a right hip issue, Milton Valenzuela has a right thigh problem, while Marlon Hairston and Gyasi Zardes have left thigh injuries.
Liam Fraser was with the Canadian team for the final round of World Cup qualifying, and Jonathan was called up recently to the Ghana national side.
Miguel Berry picked up his fourth goal on the season on Saturday, putting him three back of Lucas Zelarayan for the team lead and Derrick Etienne collected his second assist this year.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Marsman; Makoun, Figal, Pirez; Shea, Ulloa, Matuidi, Gregore, Carranza; Higuain, Robinson
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Francis, Williams, Wormgoor, Afful; Parente, Nagbe; Santos, Zelarayan, Etienne; Wright-Phillips
We say: Inter Miami 1-0 Columbus Crew
Momentum in football is a funny thing as it can happen when you least expect it, and you can lose it in the blink of an eye, and at the moment, the Herons are doing all the little things right, while Columbus have continuously shot themselves in the foot.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Miami win with a probability of 51.57%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 24.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Miami win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Columbus Crew win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Inter Miami in this match.
