Separated by just three points in the Campeonato Brasileiro standings, high-flying pair Gremio and Athletico Paranaense meet on Wednesday evening.
While the third-placed home side sit just above their visitors in the pecking order, Athletico would overtake them with a win at Arena do Gremio.
Match preview
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Despite posting only one win from their last five league games, Gremio occupy third place in Brazil's Serie A after 26 rounds of the 2023 season.
Two draws and two losses during that time have seen hopes of chasing down leaders Botafogo decline, and the Tricolor are now more concerned with retaining a Copa Libertadores place until the campaign's conclusion.
Gremio's 3-2 defeat to Internacional in last week's Porto Alegre derby proved perhaps the most painful setback of all, as even a second-half fightback was not enough to deny their bitterest rivals all three points at Estadio Beira-Rio.
Having leaked goals at a rate of two per game since mid-September, Renato Gaucho's side now hold a worse defensive record than any team outside of the Brasileiro's bottom six, and even the presence of Uruguayan great Luis Suarez up front cannot cover for such deficiencies.
Gaucho admits his team expose themselves to risks due to an expansive style of play, but with direct qualification for next year's Libertadores now threatened he may be forced into a rethink; Gremio are level on points with Palmeiras and Flamengo, while four more clubs sit within four points.
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Not only can Athletico Paranaense leapfrog their hosts in the table with victory on Wednesday evening, they would also gain revenge for losing 2-1 at home in May's reverse fixture despite Barcelona-bound star Vitor Roque hauling them level during the first half.
Ten days on from a 1-1 draw against Bragantino, which continued their winless start to October, Athletico will return from the international break with successive away games: after visiting Arena do Gremio in midweek, on Saturday they face first-placed Botafogo.
With two wins and one loss from their last five outings, the Rubro-Negro sit eighth in Serie A but are still very much in contention for the all-important top four.
Since taking over from predecessor Paulo Turra in June, Athletico coach Wesley Carvalho has led the Parana-based club to eight wins, seven draws and six losses, so consistency has been the missing ingredient during his reign.
After crashing out on penalties to outsiders Bolivar in the Copa Libertadores, Carvalho knows that ensuring a return to South America's top club competition is a must, so having had a week to work with his squad on the training ground better results are now expected.
Team News
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In addition to the absence of star striker Vitor Roque - who has scored seven more goals than his nearest teammate this season, but is sidelined by an ankle injury - Athletico Paranaense will be without Agustin Canobbio in midweek, as Uruguay play on Tuesday and the winger is set to be involved.
Tomas Cuello should therefore deputise on the right flank, while coach Wesley Carvalho is set to recall central defender Thiago Heleno, as the visitors' captain is now available after serving a suspension against Bragantino.
Bruno Zapelli and Lucas Esquivel were both released by Argentina's Olympic squad and so are back in contention, and the latter could join Thiago Heleno in the Rubo-Negro's back three.
Meanwhile, Gremio boss Renato Gaucho is expected to name the same back line for a third consecutive game, despite conceding three times in the 'Grenal' derby. Captain Pedro Geromel will helm a four-man defensive unit for the hosts.
Gaucho has some issues to resolve in midfield, as Mathias Villasanti remains on Paraguay duty, while Felipe Carballo is struggling with a pelvic problem; Mila has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
Up front, 10-goal top scorer Luis Suarez leads the way, though he may soon depart Porto Alegre and could be bound for MLS, where he would join several former teammates.
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Grando; Pedro, Kannemann, Geromel, Reinaldo; Nathan, Pepe, Luan; Cristaldo, Suarez, Ferreira
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Bento; Rocha, Heleno, Esquivel; Cuello, Fernandinho, Erick, Vinicius; Bueno, Pablo, Zapelli
We say: Gremio 2-1 Athletico Paranaense
While Gremio boast the third-best home record in Serie A - winning 10 games from 13 so far - Athletico have just three away wins to their name in this year's Brasileiro. Therefore, the hosts can get back to winning ways after their derby defeat.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
