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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 30.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitesse | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
30.6% ( 0.73) | 25.73% ( 0.03) | 43.68% ( -0.76) |
Both teams to score 53.6% ( 0.28) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.69% ( 0.19) | 50.31% ( -0.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.74% ( 0.17) | 72.26% ( -0.17) |
Vitesse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.56% ( 0.61) | 30.45% ( -0.61) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.35% ( 0.72) | 66.65% ( -0.72) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.06% ( -0.28) | 22.94% ( 0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.28% ( -0.41) | 56.72% ( 0.41) |
Score Analysis |
Vitesse | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
1-0 @ 8.31% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 7.27% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.96% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.6% | 1-1 @ 12.22% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.72% | 0-1 @ 10.28% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 9% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 7.57% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 4.42% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.71% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.1% Total : 43.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 42 |
2 | Ajax | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 36 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
10 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
11 | Willem II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
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