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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 43.66%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.85%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
Result | ||
NEC | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
43.66% ( 0.47) | 24.64% ( 0.17) | 31.7% ( -0.63) |
Both teams to score 57.75% ( -0.87) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.87% ( -1.03) | 45.13% ( 1.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.52% ( -0.99) | 67.48% ( 1) |
NEC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.24% ( -0.22) | 20.76% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.61% ( -0.35) | 53.39% ( 0.35) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.88% ( -0.9) | 27.12% ( 0.9) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.49% ( -1.19) | 62.51% ( 1.19) |
Score Analysis |
NEC | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
2-1 @ 9.08% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 8.85% ( 0.33) 2-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 4.76% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.73% Total : 43.66% | 1-1 @ 11.55% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 5.63% ( 0.25) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.64% | 1-2 @ 7.54% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.07) 1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.02% Total : 31.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 19 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 62 | 18 | 44 | 46 |
2 | Ajax | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 24 | 45 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 40 |
4 | Feyenoord | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
5 | FC Twente | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 34 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 25 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 25 |
10 | Heerenveen | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 24 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 23 |
12 | Willem II | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 23 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 20 |
14 | Heracles | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 18 |
15 | Groningen | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 17 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 14 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | -29 | 10 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 8 |
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