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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Go Ahead Eagles win with a probability of 68.34%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 13.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 1-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.36%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-2 (3.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Go Ahead Eagles would win this match.
Result | ||
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | Heracles |
68.34% ( 0.28) | 18.02% ( -0.12) | 13.64% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 54.87% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.23% ( 0.21) | 36.77% ( -0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.07% ( 0.23) | 58.93% ( -0.23) |
Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.19% ( 0.13) | 9.81% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.41% ( 0.29) | 32.59% ( -0.29) |
Heracles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.84% ( -0.09) | 39.16% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.13% ( -0.08) | 75.87% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | Heracles |
2-0 @ 10.35% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.52% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.03) 5-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.12% Total : 68.33% | 1-1 @ 8.36% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.02% | 1-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.79% Total : 13.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 42 |
2 | Ajax | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 36 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
10 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
11 | Willem II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
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