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Copa Sudamericana | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 2, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estádio Serra Dourada
Sao Paulo

Atletico GO
3 - 1
Sao Paulo

Jorginho (11'), Shaylon (56'), Pereira (78')
Wanderson (28'), Dudu (45+2'), Edson (52'), Shaylon (80')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Luciano (23')
Gomes (32'), Falcao (70'), Vinicius (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana semi-final between Atletico Goianiense and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Goianiense

Last Six:
Last Game: Goias 2-1 Atletico GO
Saturday, August 27 at 8.30pm in Brasileiro

Sao Paulo

Last Six:
Last Game: Sao Paulo 0-1 Fortaleza
Sunday, August 28 at 8pm in Brasileiro

We said: Atletico Goianiense 2-1 Sao Paulo

 Although their manager was sacked following the weekend's defeat, we think that an Atletico Goianiense side who have won all of their home games in the Copa Sudamericana this season will edge out Sao Paulo to take a narrow lead into the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Goianiense win with a probability of 43.53%. A draw had a probability of 33.1% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 23.41%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Goianiense win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (6.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (18.01%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Goianiense would win this match.

Result
Atletico GoianienseDrawSao Paulo
43.53% (0.012999999999998 0.01) 33.05% (0.0019999999999953 0) 23.41% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Both teams to score 31.71% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
24.64% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)75.36% (0.0069999999999908 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
9.52% (-0.0019000000000009 -0)90.47% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Atletico Goianiense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.6% (0.0039999999999907 0)35.39% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.84% (0.0040000000000013 0)72.15% (-0.0020000000000095 -0)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.09% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)50.91% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.72% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)85.28% (0.013000000000005 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Goianiense 43.53%
    Sao Paulo 23.41%
    Draw 33.04%
Atletico GoianienseDrawSao Paulo
1-0 @ 18.71% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.72% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-1 @ 6.56% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 3.37% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-1 @ 2.27%
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 43.53%
0-0 @ 18.01%
1-1 @ 12.63%
2-2 @ 2.22% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 33.04%
0-1 @ 12.16%
1-2 @ 4.27% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 4.11% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-3 @ 0.96% (-0.001 -0)
0-3 @ 0.92% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 23.41%

How you voted: Atletico GO vs Sao Paulo

Atletico Goianiense
57.1%
Draw
12.2%
Sao Paulo
30.6%
49
Head to Head
Jul 3, 2022 8pm
Atletico GO
1-2
Sao Paulo
Freitas (30' pen.)
Ramon (20'), Baralhas (23'), Jefferson (35'), Shaylon (52'), Edson (86')
Luciano (24' pen., 62')
Diego (28'), Calleri (29'), Welington (37'), Nestor (39'), Pele (54'), Luciano (73'), Neves (90+9')
Sep 19, 2021 8pm
Sao Paulo
2-1
Atletico GO
Rigoni (36'), Luciano (56')
Pele (83')
Barbosa (71')
Maranhao (27'), Natanael (86')
Jun 5, 2021 11pm
Atletico GO
2-0
Sao Paulo
Eder (23'), Paulo (79')
Natanael (30'), Maranhao (70'), Lucao (76'), Janderson (82')

Vinicius (14'), Pele (69'), Reinaldo (83'), Nestor (85'), Volpi (89')
Jan 31, 2021 7pm
Atletico GO
2-1
Sao Paulo
Natanael (21'), Vitor (88')
Roberto (10'), Maranhao (32'), Vitor (89')
Reinaldo (40')
Oct 8, 2020 12.30am
Sao Paulo
3-0
Atletico GO
Brenner (45+2', 71'), Sara (65')
Reinaldo (21'), Alves (43'), Sara (78')

Gilvan (41'), Hyuri (90')
rhs 2.0
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