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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 40.02%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 1-0 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swansea City would win this match.
Result | ||
Cardiff City | Draw | Swansea City |
33.93% ( -0.43) | 26.05% ( 0) | 40.02% ( 0.43) |
Both teams to score 53.75% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.35% ( -0.07) | 50.65% ( 0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.45% ( -0.06) | 72.55% ( 0.07) |
Cardiff City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.59% ( -0.3) | 28.41% ( 0.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.83% ( -0.38) | 64.16% ( 0.39) |
Swansea City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.08% ( 0.2) | 24.92% ( -0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.45% ( 0.27) | 59.55% ( -0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Cardiff City | Draw | Swansea City |
1-0 @ 8.91% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 5.61% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 3.27% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 2.35% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.27% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.71% Total : 33.93% | 1-1 @ 12.38% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.08% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.05% | 0-1 @ 9.84% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 8.6% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 6.84% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 3.98% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 3.17% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.38% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.61% Total : 40.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 48 | 19 | 29 | 53 |
2 | Burnley | 26 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 52 |
3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 17 | 19 | 52 |
4 | Sunderland | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 50 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 42 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 41 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 40 |
8 | Watford | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 38 |
9 | Bristol City | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 37 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 37 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 6 | 36 |
12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 34 |
13 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 32 |
14 | Millwall | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 30 |
15 | Preston North EndPreston | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 30 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 29 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 29 |
18 | Derby CountyDerby | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 27 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 27 |
20 | Luton TownLuton | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 25 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 24 |
22 | Hull City | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 23 |
23 | Portsmouth | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 23 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 54 | -29 | 21 |
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