We said: Chelsea 2-0 Lille
There is always a danger of Lille breaching the opposition defence when David and Yilmaz are on song, but Les Dogues' form since the turn of the year makes it extremely difficult to envisage any shocks in the English capital.
Chelsea have been far from inspiring despite their strong run of results, but a freshened-up team will expect to run out convincing winners and take a healthy first-leg advantage to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 47.19%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Lille had a probability of 24.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (8.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for a Lille win it was 0-1 (9.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Chelsea in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Chelsea.
