Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.42%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
Result | ||
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
31.03% ( 1.2) | 23.22% ( 0.37) | 45.75% ( -1.57) |
Both teams to score 62.49% ( -0.63) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.24% ( -1.13) | 38.76% ( 1.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.93% ( -1.2) | 61.07% ( 1.21) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.57% ( 0.18) | 24.43% ( -0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.14% ( 0.25) | 58.85% ( -0.25) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.68% ( -1.03) | 17.31% ( 1.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.33% ( -1.84) | 47.67% ( 1.84) |
Score Analysis |
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
2-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.34) 2-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 3.46% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.13) 4-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.74% Total : 31.03% | 1-1 @ 10.45% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.22% | 1-2 @ 9.17% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 7.42% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 5.36% ( -0.24) 0-3 @ 3.8% ( -0.19) 2-3 @ 3.78% ( -0.15) 1-4 @ 2.35% ( -0.19) 0-4 @ 1.67% ( -0.15) 2-4 @ 1.66% ( -0.13) Other @ 4.06% Total : 45.75% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 14 |
5 | Macarthur | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 12 |
6 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 11 |
8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 2 |
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