Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 59.5%. A win for Western United had a probability of 20.58% and a draw had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.7%) and 3-1 (7.11%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (5.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
Result | ||
Melbourne City | Draw | Western United |
59.5% ( -0.04) | 19.91% ( 0.02) | 20.58% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 63.52% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.33% ( -0.05) | 32.66% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.66% ( -0.06) | 54.33% ( 0.06) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.17% ( -0.03) | 10.83% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.1% ( -0.06) | 34.9% ( 0.05) |
Western United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.23% ( -0.01) | 28.77% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.39% ( -0.01) | 64.61% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne City | Draw | Western United |
2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.7% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.11% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.7% ( -0) 3-2 @ 4.43% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.17% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.46% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.76% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.41% ( -0) 5-2 @ 1.09% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 3.19% Total : 59.5% | 1-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.97% 0-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.84% ( -0) Other @ 0.36% Total : 19.91% | 1-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.88% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.48% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 3.19% Total : 20.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 28 |
2 | Auckland FC | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 27 |
3 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
4 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 24 |
5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 21 |
6 | Macarthur | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 21 |
7 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 19 |
8 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 18 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 35 | -26 | 8 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 5 |
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