World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 16, 2024 at 12am UK
Estadio La Asuncion
Paraguay2 - 1Venezuela
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Ecuador 0-0 Paraguay
Thursday, October 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Thursday, October 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Venezuela 1-1 Argentina
Thursday, October 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Thursday, October 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
We said: Paraguay 0-0 Venezuela
Paraguay's case is most certainly a peculiar one, as even though the hosts have scored the fewest goals in CONMEBOL qualifying - a mere two - they have only allowed three at the other end, by far the best defensive record on the continent. Such statistics give rise to another low-scoring affair on Tuesday, one that should reflect just how close the two sides are in the standings; we think this match has 0-0 written all over it. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paraguay win with a probability of 36.82%. A win for Venezuela had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paraguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.51%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Venezuela win was 0-1 (11.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paraguay would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Paraguay | Draw | Venezuela |
36.82% ( -0.14) | 29.27% ( -0.09) | 33.9% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 44.04% ( 0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
