Taca de Portugal | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Feb 29, 2024 at 8.45pm UK

Estadio Jose Alvalade

Sporting Lisbon
2 - 1
Benfica

(Sporting Lisbon win 4-3 on aggregate)

Goncalves (9'), Gyokeres (54')
Hjulmand (33'), Paulinho (41')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Aursnes (68')
Schmidt (0'), Otamendi (31'), di Maria (74'), Kokcu (75'), Silva (78')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Taca de Portugal clash between Sporting Lisbon and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Taca de Portugal

Last Game: Rio Ave 3-3 Sporting Lisbon
Sunday, February 25 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Benfica

All competitions

Taca de Portugal

Last Game: Benfica 4-0 Portimonense
Sunday, February 25 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Sporting Lisbon 1-1 Benfica

The spoils could be shared in this latest instalment of the Lisbon derby, leaving it all to play for when the reverse fixture comes around in April. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 50.46%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 26.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Benfica
50.46% ( -0.09)	23.51% ( 0.03)	26.03% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 57.66% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.52% (

-0.07)

43.48% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.12% (

-0.07)

65.88% (

0.08)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.68% (

-0.06)

17.32% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.31% (

-0.11)

47.69% (

0.11)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.74% (

0.01)

30.27% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.56% (

0.01)

66.44% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 50.46%

Benfica 26.03%

Draw 23.51%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Benfica
2-1 @ 9.63% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.71% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.88% Total : 50.46%	1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.76% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.51%	1-2 @ 6.56% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.29% 0-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.05% Total : 26.03%