Primeira Liga | Gameweek 4
Sep 3, 2023 at 3.30pm UK
Estadio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira
Chaves1 - 2Moreirense
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Farense 5-0 Chaves
Saturday, August 26 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Saturday, August 26 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Famalicao 0-0 Moreirense
Monday, August 21 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Monday, August 21 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
We said: Chaves 0-1 Moreirense
Given that Chaves have lost each of their opening three league games - conceding 11 goals in the process - we expect Moreirense to pile more pressure on the Primeira Liga basement dwellers this weekend. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 41.82%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Moreirense |
32.41% ( 0.02) | 25.77% ( -0.25) | 41.82% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 54.22% ( 0.85) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.15% ( 1.09) | 49.85% ( -1.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.15% ( 0.97) | 71.85% ( -0.96) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.01% ( 0.56) | 29% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.11% ( 0.68) | 64.89% ( -0.68) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.36% ( 0.6) | 23.65% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.26% ( 0.86) | 57.74% ( -0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
Chaves 32.41%
Moreirense 41.82%
Draw 25.77%
| Chaves | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 7.58% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.26% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 2.17% ( 0)4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.57% Total : 32.41% | 1-1 @ 12.24% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 6.86% ( -0.31)2-2 @ 5.46% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.77% | 0-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 8.83% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 7.13% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 4.24% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 3.43% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.98% Total : 41.82% |
How you voted: Chaves vs Moreirense
Chaves
19.2%Draw
46.2%Moreirense
34.6%26
Form Guide
