Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.89%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 17.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.72%) and 1-2 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-7 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Belenenses | Draw | Benfica |
17.07% | 23.04% | 59.89% |
Both teams to score 46.51% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.97% | 52.03% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.23% | 73.76% |
Belenenses Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.05% | 43.95% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.92% | 80.08% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.97% | 17.03% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.83% | 47.17% |
Score Analysis |
Belenenses | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 6.15% 2-1 @ 4.48% 2-0 @ 2.53% 3-1 @ 1.23% 3-2 @ 1.09% Other @ 1.6% Total : 17.07% | 1-1 @ 10.89% 0-0 @ 7.48% 2-2 @ 3.96% Other @ 0.7% Total : 23.04% | 0-1 @ 13.24% 0-2 @ 11.72% 1-2 @ 9.64% 0-3 @ 6.92% 1-3 @ 5.69% 0-4 @ 3.06% 1-4 @ 2.52% 2-3 @ 2.34% 0-5 @ 1.08% 2-4 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.63% Total : 59.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 5 | 34 | 33 |
2 | Porto | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 20 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 25 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 21 |
5 | Braga | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 20 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 17 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 17 |
9 | Casa Pia | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 10 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 10 |
13 | AVS | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 10 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 9 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
16 | Nacional | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 8 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 5 |
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