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Premier League | Gameweek 14
Oct 29, 2022 at 3pm UK
St James' Park
Aston Villa logo

Newcastle
4 - 0
Aston Villa

Wilson (45+5' pen., 56'), Joelinton (59'), Almiron (67')
Joelinton (65')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Watkins (45+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Newcastle United and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newcastle United

All competitions
Last Game: Spurs 1-2 Newcastle
Sunday, October 23 at 4.30pm in Premier League

Aston Villa

All competitions
Last Game: Aston Villa 4-0 Brentford
Sunday, October 23 at 2pm in Premier League

We said: Newcastle United 2-0 Aston Villa

 Villa got a huge lift from their result last week, but St. James' Park has become one of the toughest place to visit in the country, so this will be difficult for Danks and his side. Newcastle have kept three clean sheets in their six home games this season, and they looked very comfortable in defence when they faced Everton in their last fixture here, so a similar result looks likely. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 47.71%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 26.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Newcastle UnitedDrawAston Villa
47.71% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02) 25.66% (0.011000000000003 0.01) 26.63% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Both teams to score 51.27% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.85% (-0.034000000000006 -0.03)52.15% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.13% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)73.87% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.14% (-0.02300000000001 -0.02)21.86% (0.023 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.9% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)55.1% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.61% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)34.39% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.9% (-0.012 -0.01)71.1% (0.012 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Newcastle United 47.71%
    Aston Villa 26.63%
    Draw 25.66%
Newcastle UnitedDrawAston Villa
1-0 @ 11.43% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.28% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 8.69% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 4.7% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
3-0 @ 4.4% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 2.51% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 1.79% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.67% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 0.95% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 47.71%
1-1 @ 12.2% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.52% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 25.66%
0-1 @ 8.03% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.51% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.28% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 2.32% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.76% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1.52% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 26.63%

How you voted: Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Newcastle United
79.1%
Draw
12.0%
Aston Villa
9.0%
234
Head to Head
Feb 13, 2022 2pm
Newcastle
1-0
Aston Villa
Trippier (35')
Joelinton (39'), Burn (66'), Shelvey (82')

McGinn (42'), Luiz (89'), Bailey (90+5'), Ramsey (90+7')
Aug 21, 2021 3pm
Aston Villa
2-0
Newcastle
Ings (45+3'), El Ghazi (62' pen.)
Luiz (45+1'), Martinez (75'), Buendia (85')

Wilson (41'), Hayden (45'), Murphy (57'), Schar (84')
Mar 12, 2021 8pm
Newcastle
1-1
Aston Villa
Lascelles (90+4')
Krafth (52'), Lascelles (68')
Watkins (86')
McGinn (74'), Sanson (77'), Mings (78')
Jan 23, 2021 8pm
Aston Villa
2-0
Newcastle
Watkins (13'), Traore (42')

Schar (26'), Carroll (54'), Lascelles (57')
Jun 24, 2020 6pm
Newcastle
1-1
Aston Villa
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City117222213923
3Chelsea115422113819
4Arsenal115421812619
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest115421510519
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton115421915419
7Fulham115331613318
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1151523131016
11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Leicester CityLeicester112451421-710
16Everton112451017-710
17Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
18Crystal Palace11146815-77
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144
> Premier League Full Table


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