Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 31

Apr 3, 2024 at 8.15pm UK

Etihad Stadium

Man City
4 - 1
Aston Villa

Rodri (11'), Foden (45+1', 62', 69')
Grealish (32')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Duran (20')
Luiz (38'), Chambers (90+4')

Phil Foden joins exclusive Premier League club with Manchester City hat-trick

Phil Foden joins an exclusive Premier League club after scoring a superb hat-trick in Manchester City's 4-1 victory over Aston Villa at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday.

Apr 3, 23:23

Aston Villa manager Unai Emery looks dejected after Manchester City scores their third goal on April 3, 2024

Unai Emery offers triple Aston Villa fitness update, explains squad rotation in Man City loss

Unai Emery issues a triple fitness update and explains the reasons behind his decision to make six changes to the Aston Villa side that lost 4-1 at Manchester City on Wednesday.

Apr 4, 01:42

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola on April 3, 2024

Pep Guardiola gives verdict on when Premier League title race could be decided

Pep Guardiola admits that the three-way Premier League title race between Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal could be decided on the final day of the season.

Apr 4, 01:52

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester City

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Man City 0-0 Arsenal
Sunday, March 31 at 4.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Aston Villa

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Aston Villa 2-0 Wolves
Saturday, March 30 at 5.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 17.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.59%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (4.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Aston Villa
61.76% ( 0.06)	20.54% ( 0.53)	17.69% ( -0.59)

Both teams to score 55.73% (

-3.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.62% (

-3.56)

40.37% (

3.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.25% (

-3.76)

62.75% (

3.76)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.43% (

-1.07)

12.57% (

1.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.36% (

-2.26)

38.64% (

2.26)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.74% (

-2.79)

36.26% (

2.79)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.96% (

-2.93)

73.04% (

2.93)

Score Analysis

Manchester City 61.76%

Aston Villa 17.69%

Draw 20.54%

Manchester City	Draw	Aston Villa
2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 9.8% ( 0.8) 1-0 @ 9.45% ( 1.13) 3-1 @ 6.87% ( -0.23) 3-0 @ 6.78% ( 0.29) 4-1 @ 3.56% ( -0.28) 4-0 @ 3.51% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.4) 4-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.29) 5-1 @ 1.48% ( -0.18) 5-0 @ 1.46% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.61% Total : 61.76%	1-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.48) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( -0.35) 0-0 @ 4.56% ( 0.71) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.17% Total : 20.54%	1-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 4.62% ( 0.41) 0-2 @ 2.35% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.17) Other @ 2.51% Total : 17.69%