Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 71.96%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for Manchester United had a probability of 13.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.73%), while for a Manchester United win it was 1-2 (3.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.