Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 57.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 18.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.16%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.