UEFA Nations League

[monks data]

Nations League | League B

Oct 11, 2020 at 5pm UK

Finland
2 - 0
Bulgaria

Taylor (52'), Jensen (67')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Preview: Finland vs. Bulgaria - prediction, team news, lineups

By Ben Knapton, Senior Reporter

Published: October 9 2020 | 09:51

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:46

Sports Mole previews Sunday's UEFA Nations League clash between Finland and Bulgaria, including team news and predicted lineups.

Finland will be looking to put their crushing friendly defeat to Poland behind them when they welcome Bulgaria to Helsinki for Sunday's Nations League clash.

The visitors have a disappointment of their own to overcome as their dreams of qualifying for the European Championships ended at the hands of Hungary in midweek.

Match preview

Finland boss Markku Kanerva pictured on June 11, 2019 © Reuters

Despite the absence of the illustrious Robert Lewandowski, Finland proved no match for Poland as the Nordic nation succumbed to a humbling 5-1 loss in their midweek friendly against the Eagles.

There was very little riding on that game, though, and Markku Kanerva's side will be determined to push that heavy defeat to the back of their minds as they aim to pick up where they left off in the Nations League.

Having been promoted from League C last time around, Finland's opening game in Group B4 saw them fall to 1-0 defeat against Wales, but Kanerva's men triumphed over the Republic of Ireland by the same scoreline a few days later.

Furthermore, recent history suggests that there will certainly be a winner and a loser in this game, as Finland have not shared the spoils in a match since playing out a goalless stalemate with North Macedonia in March 2018.

The Eagle-Owls have already secured a first ever qualification for the European Championships and ought to feel confident of pushing for top spot in their Nations League group, especially seeing as they are now facing a Bulgaria side who have seriously struggled for results over the past couple of years.

Bulgaria manager Georgi Dermendzhiev pictured in November 2019 © Reuters

Bulgaria's hopes of qualifying for the Euros for the first time since 2004 were dashed in their playoff semi-final showdown with Hungary, with Georgi Dermendzhiev's side sent packing after a 3-1 defeat.

That loss means that Bulgaria are winless from four games in 2020 and are on a torrid run of form which includes just one win from their last 17 outings in all competitions, including friendlies.

Furthermore, Dermendzhiev's men endured an underwhelming start to the new Nations League campaign as they drew with the Republic of Ireland before suffering defeat to Wales last month, and Bulgaria must turn their fortunes around this month lest they risk a swift return to League C.

However, Bulgaria have never lost to Finland in the eight meetings between the two sides - winning seven and drawing one of their fixtures against the Eagle-Owls - with the last game between the two sides ending in a 2-1 victory to Bulgaria in a 2008 friendly.

Finland Nations League form: LW
Finland form (all competitions): WWLLWL

Bulgaria Nations League form: DL
Bulgaria form (all competitions): LWLDLL

Team News

Norwich City's Teemu Pukki celebrates scoring against Preston North End on September 19, 2020 © Reuters

Finland are welcoming some of their big-hitters back for their two Nations League games, with Teemu Pukki expected to return to the fold after a toe infection and is set to start up top.

Captain Tim Sparv missed out the defeat to Poland for personal reasons but is in line for a recall to the midfield alongside Glen Kamara, meaning that Thomas Lam and Rasmus Schuller – both of whom started against Poland - will most likely drop down to the bench.

Lukas Hradecky is expected to replace Jesse Joronen in goal, while Jere Uronen could be brought back in on the left-hand side of defence.

As expected, Bulgaria named a particularly strong contingent for their playoff semi-final, and the majority of the side that lost to Hungary will most likely be thrust straight back into action for two important Nations League clashes.

However, Galin Ivanov will most likely be forced to miss out after succumbing to injury after just half an hour on Thursday, which could see Georgi Yomov - the goalscorer on the night - handed his first start for the national team.

Finland possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Alho, O'Shaughnessey, Ojala, Vaisanen, Uronen; Kamara, Sparv; Jensen; Pohjanpalo, Pukki

Bulgaria possible starting lineup:
Iliev; Cicinho, Terziev, Dimitrov, Velkovski; Malinov, Karabelov; Despodov, Nedelev, Yomov; Kraev

SM words green background

We say: Finland 2-0 Bulgaria

Finland should be back to full strength for this game whilst Bulgaria must aim to quickly recover from their European heartbreak. The visitors have lost nine of their last 12 in all competitions and we can see them falling to defeat again here, with Finland looking likely to record their first ever victory over Bulgaria on Sunday.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 57.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 18.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.16%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.