Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 44.38%. A win for Finland had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Finland win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Poland would win this match.