We said: Cyprus 1-0 Lithuania
Cyprus have produced just one goal so far in Group 2, but home advantage could help them repeat their 1-0 win over Lithuania in the reverse fixture.
A tense encounter will be more about avoiding defeat for the hosts, but they may well claim maximum points by picking off their opponents on the break.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 65.55%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Cyprus had a probability of 13.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.53%) and 1-2 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Cyprus win it was 1-0 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Cyprus would win this match.