After picking up just three points between them so far, relegation could be decided between League C Group 2's bottom two on Friday, when Cyprus and Lithuania meet in the UEFA Nations League.
The hosts can secure safety by picking up a point in Larnaca, meaning the visitors must win to take their survival fight down to the final day.
Match preview
© Imago
Following a dismal October camp, during which they conceded six goals in two games without taking any points, Cyprus saw any hopes of getting promoted to League B ended in brutal fashion.
Losing 3-0 at home to Romania and then by the same scoreline in Kosovo now leaves them solely concerned with avoiding the drop down to Europe's fourth tier.
With their only Nations League victory coming against rock-bottom Lithuania, Cyprus have slipped to 127th in FIFA's latest world rankings - more pertinently, they sit third in Group 2 and still in some danger.
Sofronis Avgousti's side do have a three-point buffer to last place, so a draw on Friday evening would be enough to keep them clear of either automatic demotion or a relegation playoff against League D opponents.
Defeat might see them needing something from Monday's final game against Romania, who have a flawless record so far, meaning a repeat of September's 1-0 win in Lithuania would be very welcome.
© Imago
When they met Cyprus two months ago, Lithuania came away frustrated at failing to take their chances, having had double the amount of goal attempts as their visitors and almost two-thirds of the ball.
That has proved costly, as subsequent losses to Romania - both home and away - and Kosovo have left them pointless at the foot of Group 2.
After narrowly avoiding relegation from League C in the 2022-23 Nations League - via a playoff win over Gibraltar - the Trispalves are therefore staring at the trapdoor again this season.
Managed by national team legend Edgaras Jankauskas - back for a second spell in charge, after being reappointed in January 2023 - Lithuania have managed only four wins from 18 matches since the former Porto striker's return.
Situated 13 places below Cyprus in the FIFA rankings, they are expected to finish fourth - even winning would leave them potentially needing points against Kosovo on the final matchday - but their destiny has not been decided just yet.
Team News
© Imago
Sofronis Avgousti has switched away from a back three to a 4-2-3-1 formation during the course of this Nations League campaign, and he will have to make at least once change to his defence on Friday, as St Mirren's Alex Gogic has withdrawn due to injury.
Anorthosis Famagusta midfielder Andreas Chrysostomou is also unavailable, but Brazil-born full-back Anderson Correia has been recalled and will offer cover on the hosts' left flank.
Set to start up front, AIK striker Ioannis Pittas averaged just under a goal every other game in this year's Allsvenskan, and he is expected to lead the line again, linking up with Hellas Verona forward Grigoris Kastanos.
Meanwhile, Lithuania's attack is led by Armandas Kucys, who scored in last month's defeat to Romania and has notched two of their three Nations League goals so far.
Experienced captain Fedor Cernych - who is closing in on a century of caps - has been largely restricted to a substitute role of late, so Paulius Golubickas is likely to start in behind Kucys at AEK Arena.
Cyprus possible starting lineup:
Mall; Antoniou, Andreou, Laifis, Ioannou; Kousoulos, Artymatas; Loizou, Kastanos, Tzionis; Pittas
Lithuania possible starting lineup:
Gertmonas; Sirvys, Lekiatas, Girdvainis, Tutyskinas; Vorobjovas, Gineitis; Slivka, Golubickas, Lasickas; Kucys
We say: Cyprus 1-0 Lithuania
Cyprus have produced just one goal so far in Group 2, but home advantage could help them repeat their 1-0 win over Lithuania in the reverse fixture.
A tense encounter will be more about avoiding defeat for the hosts, but they may well claim maximum points by picking off their opponents on the break.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Jonathan O'Shea
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