Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 14, 2023 at 5pm UK

Stadion Stozice

Slovenia
3 - 0
Finland

Sesko (16' pen., 28'), Janza (90+2')
Janza (10')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Kallman (34')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Slovenia and Finland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Slovenia

All competitions

Last Game: San Marino 0-4 Slovenia
Sunday, September 10 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	6	7	13
2	Denmark	6	7	13
3	Finland	6	7	12
4	Kazakhstan	6	4	12
5	Northern Ireland	6	-4	3
6	San Marino	6	-21	0

Finland

All competitions

Last Game: Finland 0-1 Denmark
Sunday, September 10 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	6	7	13
2	Denmark	6	7	13
3	Finland	6	7	12
4	Kazakhstan	6	4	12
5	Northern Ireland	6	-4	3
6	San Marino	6	-21	0

With so much on the line, neither side is set to go all-guns-blazing on Saturday evening, when one point apiece would represent a decent result for either. Slovenia seem to have the tougher run-in, but even a draw should keep their destiny in their own hands, as Denmark or Kazakhstan play each other and at least one must drop points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 43.97%. A win for Finland had a probability of 28.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Finland win was 0-1 (9.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.

Result
Slovenia	Draw	Finland
43.97% ( 2.35)	27.51% ( -0.46)	28.52% ( -1.9)

Both teams to score 47.16% (

0.39)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.92% (

0.93)

58.08% (

-0.94)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.25% (

0.73)

78.75% (

-0.73)

Slovenia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.75% (

1.69)

26.24% (

-1.69)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.65% (

2.2)

61.35% (

-2.21)

Finland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.94% (

-0.96)

36.05% (

0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.16% (

-1)

72.84% (

0.99)

Score Analysis

Slovenia 43.96%

Finland 28.52%

Draw 27.51%

Slovenia	Draw	Finland
1-0 @ 12.65% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.29) 2-0 @ 8.47% ( 0.5) 3-1 @ 3.85% ( 0.3) 3-0 @ 3.78% ( 0.39) 3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0.16) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.07% Total : 43.96%	1-1 @ 12.91% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 9.46% ( -0.34) 2-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.51%	0-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.61) 1-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.27) 0-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.45) 1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.15) 0-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.2) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.94% Total : 28.52%