Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 23, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Denmark
3 - 1
Finland

Hojlund (21', 82', 90+3')
Maehle (18'), Norgaard (49')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Antman (53')
Antman (33'), Ollila (78')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Denmark and Finland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Denmark

All competitions

Last Game: Australia 1-0 Denmark
Wednesday, November 30 at 3pm in World Cup

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	3	3	6
2	Australia	3	-1	6
3	Tunisia	3	0	4
4	Denmark	3	-2	1

Finland

All competitions

Last Game: Finland 0-1 Estonia
Thursday, January 12 at 4pm in International Friendlies

Current League B3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Bosnia-Herzegovina	0	0	0
2	Montenegro	0	0	0
3	Finland	0	0	0
4	Romania	0	0	0

Denmark may have faltered in Qatar, but Hjulmand has forged this side into a stubborn foe on home soil; since Euro 2020, the Danes have conceded two goals in their last nine games in front of their own fans. Finland are hardly prolific at the best of times and the nation's all-time top scorer, Teemu Pukki, comes into the contest without a goal for club or country since January - giving Denmark the edge in this qualification opener. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Denmark win with a probability of 65.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Finland had a probability of 13.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Denmark win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.8%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.78%), while for a Finland win it was 0-1 (4.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Denmark would win this match.

Result
Denmark	Draw	Finland
65.9% ( -0.02)	20.68% ( 0.01)	13.43% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 45.25% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.81% (

0.02)

49.19% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.75% (

0.02)

71.25% (

-0.02)

Denmark Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.9% (

14.1%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.27% (

41.73% (

Finland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.68% (

0.05)

47.32% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.27% (

0.04)

82.73% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Denmark 65.89%

Finland 13.43%

Draw 20.68%

Denmark	Draw	Finland
1-0 @ 13.07% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 12.8% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0) 3-0 @ 8.36% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.26% ( 0) 4-0 @ 4.09% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.06% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.6% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.2% 4-2 @ 1.15% ( 0) Other @ 2.38% Total : 65.89%	1-1 @ 9.78% ( 0) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.64% Total : 20.68%	0-1 @ 4.99% ( 0) 1-2 @ 3.66% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.87% ( 0) 1-3 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 1.99% Total : 13.43%