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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Doncaster Rovers win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Doncaster Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.41%) and 2-1 (8.29%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (10.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Doncaster Rovers would win this match.
Result | ||
Doncaster Rovers | Draw | Rochdale |
42.63% ( 0.25) | 28.42% ( 0.02) | 28.95% ( -0.27) |
Both teams to score 44.9% ( -0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
38.96% ( -0.16) | 61.04% ( 0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.97% ( -0.12) | 81.02% ( 0.12) |
Doncaster Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.65% ( 0.06) | 28.35% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.91% ( 0.07) | 64.08% ( -0.08) |
Rochdale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.67% ( -0.3) | 37.33% ( 0.3) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.89% ( -0.3) | 74.11% ( 0.3) |
Score Analysis |
Doncaster Rovers | Draw | Rochdale |
1-0 @ 13.33% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 8.41% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 1.66% Total : 42.62% | 1-1 @ 13.14% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.58% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.41% | 0-1 @ 10.42% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.48% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.75% Total : 28.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
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