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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Doncaster Rovers win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Doncaster Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.41%) and 2-1 (8.29%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (10.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Doncaster Rovers would win this match.
Result | ||
Doncaster Rovers | Draw | Rochdale |
42.63% ( 0.25) | 28.42% ( 0.02) | 28.95% ( -0.27) |
Both teams to score 44.9% ( -0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
38.96% ( -0.16) | 61.04% ( 0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.97% ( -0.12) | 81.02% ( 0.12) |
Doncaster Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.65% ( 0.06) | 28.35% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.91% ( 0.07) | 64.08% ( -0.08) |
Rochdale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.67% ( -0.3) | 37.33% ( 0.3) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.89% ( -0.3) | 74.11% ( 0.3) |
Score Analysis |
Doncaster Rovers | Draw | Rochdale |
1-0 @ 13.33% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 8.41% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 1.66% Total : 42.62% | 1-1 @ 13.14% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.58% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.41% | 0-1 @ 10.42% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.48% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.75% Total : 28.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | BarrowBarrow | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
2 | Gillingham | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
3 | Walsall | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
4 | Notts County | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
5 | AFC Wimbledon | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
6 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
7 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
9 | Port Vale | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
10 | Chesterfield | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
11 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
13 | Salford City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
14 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 9 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 9 |
17 | Bromley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
18 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
19 | MK Dons | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
22 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 |
23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
24 | Morecambe | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 |
> League Two Full Table |