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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 29.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (8.02%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Crawley Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
29.4% ( -0.19) | 26.29% ( -0.25) | 44.3% ( 0.44) |
Both teams to score 51.21% ( 0.66) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.89% ( 0.9) | 53.11% ( -0.9) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.31% ( 0.76) | 74.69% ( -0.76) |
Crawley Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.26% ( 0.33) | 32.74% ( -0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.7% ( 0.37) | 69.3% ( -0.37) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.14% ( 0.61) | 23.85% ( -0.61) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.96% ( 0.87) | 58.04% ( -0.87) |
Score Analysis |
Crawley Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
1-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 6.98% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.87% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.57% Total : 29.4% | 1-1 @ 12.49% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.28% | 0-1 @ 11.19% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 8.96% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 8.02% ( 0) 1-3 @ 4.28% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 3.83% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.09) 1-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.07) 0-4 @ 1.37% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.73% Total : 44.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
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