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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 44.88%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 27.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.94%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.97%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Carlisle United in this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Colchester United |
44.88% ( 0.16) | 28.01% ( 0.34) | 27.11% ( -0.5) |
Both teams to score 44.96% ( -1.21) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.55% ( -1.38) | 60.45% ( 1.38) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.42% ( -1.05) | 80.58% ( 1.06) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.12% ( -0.56) | 26.87% ( 0.56) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.81% ( -0.74) | 62.19% ( 0.74) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.49% ( -1.18) | 38.51% ( 1.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.74% ( -1.14) | 75.26% ( 1.14) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Colchester United |
1-0 @ 13.6% ( 0.49) 2-0 @ 8.94% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 8.53% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.73% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.23% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.88% Total : 44.88% | 1-1 @ 12.97% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.35% ( 0.53) 2-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28% | 0-1 @ 9.88% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 6.19% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 4.71% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.1) Other @ 1.57% Total : 27.11% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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