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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 70.39%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 11.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Burton Albion |
70.39% (![]() | 17.65% (![]() | 11.95% (![]() |
Both teams to score 50.86% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.62% (![]() | 39.37% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.28% (![]() | 61.71% (![]() |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.99% (![]() | 10.01% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.95% (![]() | 33.05% (![]() |
Burton Albion Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.51% (![]() | 43.48% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.3% (![]() | 79.7% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Burton Albion |
2-0 @ 11.52% 1-0 @ 10.01% 2-1 @ 9.6% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 8.85% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 7.37% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 5.09% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 4.24% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 3.07% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 2.34% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 1.95% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.77% ( ![]() Other @ 4.58% Total : 70.38% | 1-1 @ 8.34% (![]() 0-0 @ 4.35% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 4% Other @ 0.96% Total : 17.65% | 0-1 @ 3.63% (![]() 1-2 @ 3.47% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 1.51% 2-3 @ 1.11% 1-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.27% Total : 11.95% |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
3 | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
4 | ![]() | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
1 | ![]() | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
2 | ![]() | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
3 | ![]() | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
4 | ![]() | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |