League One

League One | Gameweek 44

Apr 22, 2023 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
1 - 0
Burton Albion

McGoldrick (63' pen.)
Roberts (77')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Oshilaja (49')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the League One clash between Derby County and Burton Albion.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Exeter 1-2 Derby
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Burton Albion

All competitions

Last Game: Burton Albion 1-1 Bolton
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.57%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 14.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Burton Albion
66.57% ( 0.6)	19.37% ( -0.31)	14.06% ( -0.28)

Both teams to score 51.13% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.79% (

0.81)

42.21% (

-0.8)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.39% (

0.8)

64.61% (

-0.8)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.21% (

0.4)

11.78% (

-0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.01% (

0.85)

36.98% (

-0.85)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.96% (

0.1)

42.04% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.53% (

0.09)

78.47% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

Derby County 66.56%

Burton Albion 14.06%

Draw 19.37%

Derby County	Draw	Burton Albion
2-0 @ 11.32% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 10.59% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 7% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 4.32% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.6% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.61% Total : 66.56%	1-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 4.95% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 4.25% ( 0) Other @ 0.99% Total : 19.37%	0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.55% Total : 14.06%