Coverage of the League One clash between Derby County and Burton Albion.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Exeter 1-2 Derby
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in League One
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Burton Albion 1-1 Bolton
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in League One
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in League One
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.57%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 14.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Burton Albion |
66.57% ( 0.6) | 19.37% ( -0.31) | 14.06% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 51.13% ( 0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.79% ( 0.81) | 42.21% ( -0.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.39% ( 0.8) | 64.61% ( -0.8) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.21% ( 0.4) | 11.78% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 63.01% ( 0.85) | 36.98% ( -0.85) |
| Burton Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.96% ( 0.1) | 42.04% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 21.53% ( 0.09) | 78.47% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
Derby County 66.56%
Burton Albion 14.06%
Draw 19.37%
| Derby County | Draw | Burton Albion |
| 2-0 @ 11.32% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 10.59% ( -0.21)2-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 7% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 4.32% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.6% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.61% Total : 66.56% | 1-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 4.95% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 4.25% ( 0)Other @ 0.99% Total : 19.37% | 0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.55% Total : 14.06% |
How you voted: Derby vs Burton Albion
Derby County
80.0%Draw
20.0%Burton Albion
0.0%5
Head to Head
Dec 10, 2022 2pm
Apr 14, 2018 3pm
Dec 2, 2017 3pm
Feb 21, 2017 7.45pm
Form Guide
